Quick question for you guys:

I decided I would take the oppurtunity to walk around the property behind my house today looking for scrapes and bedding areas. I haven't seen a big buck around the house in a couple years, so I wasn't expecting to find many scrapes. To my surprise though, I found a small pine (about 12-15in in diameter) with a fresh scrape on it about 6 in x 10 in. I started looking around to see if I could find a scrape line..never found one, but I did find a very nice antler 5 pt antler shed about 15 feet from the scrape. The shed is pretty deteriorated...I can't even measure how long the main beam would be. I haven't heard news of any of the neighbors dropping a buck that big around here lately...so what's the chances the same one is rubbing this tree this year?