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01-21-2003 | 12:43 PM

#17

NJ_Bowhntr

Joined: Feb 2003

Posts: 237

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From: NJ USA

RE: PGC Releases Preliminary Figures

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Well, NJ, I see we're still comparing apples to oranges.
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You keep saying that, and I guess that you could make that point as long as the things being compared aren't EXACTLY alike. I never said they were. In fact, I said the hunting pressure, terrain, and deer herds are very similar, so similar results can be expected. I never said that what has happened in NJ will absolutely happen in Pa, just that the chances are very likely, more likely than the states you used to for comparison. For example:

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There's ton of evidence they work in states in the South East, like Arkansas, etc, all you have to do is read the "deer forcast" in any hunting magazine's August issue, most states have a direct quote from the state biologist attributing larger bucks and an older age class of bucks to ARs.
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The terrain, habitat and hunting pressure in Pa much more closely resemble what happens in NJ than Arkansas, or any western state you listed. You tried to make a much bigger strech than me. That's more like apples to oranges than anything I had posted. But again, I guess you will keep pulling out that cliche for everything I put up. I also find it funny that you take for gospel what is printed in some magazine about another state that you likely have never hunted (I don't know if you've hunted Arkansas or not, just guessing), yet ignore what is going on in your own backyard.

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Let's look at the zones you have so much experience in.
You point out the lack of big bucks. Guess what, I see the same thing!
However, you place the blame on ARs. Most of the hunters I talk to, as well as myself, place it on the unlimited shotgun tags given out in these zones ...You won't admit even the slightest chance that may have somethingg to do with it? No chance at all?
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Yes, I think that has alot to do with the condition of the herd, I never said it didn't. In fact, when I referenced that, you took me to task and brought me back to the AR-only part of the discussion, which is why I drafted my comments as I did. Remember this from your earlier post:
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We're talking about ARs, not increased do(e) harvests, not QDM, just the taking of young 1.5yr old bucks.
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But you have to remember something, NJ only has about 1/10th of the number of hunters Pa has. One million hunters hit the woods each season in Pensylvania. Even though they have fewer days, they have more hunters to make up the difference. The pressure is very similar, so a comaprison can be drawn. You can't eliminate the pressure on antlerless deer from this discussion because both Pa and NJ have tremendous amount of it that does affect the deer herd, and the future results from any measure implemented in either state.

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Now, zones 27 and 29 have a January shotgun season that included every Sat in Jan, same regs, unlimited deer.
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These two zones have 7 days total for antlerless gun season. I think that is less than Pa's, and it's far less than zone 35 in NJ. I know, I know, apples to oranges right? But this should produce favorable results because it's far fewer than my zone 35 example, which you have blasted out of the park, yet it didn't.

The point was, you asked me to show you where such policies have failed, and I pointed out a few. If you don't like the numbers from zone 35, 27 or 29, look at zone 37. Permit Shotgun is one day long, with a one deer limit. There have been antler restrictions in this zone for 10 years, what went wrong here?

Again 6ptsika, the point is you asked me to show you where AR's are in place, yet we have not had good results, that's what I did. You can try to pick every little thing about it apart, but the examples you use on the flip side to prove your point are just as flawed, if not more flawed, than the ones I'm using to show you what can happen. I think most will agree that hunting conditions and the deer herd of Pa is more similar to NJ than to the western states or southern states you have provided as your "proof".

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As for your explanations as to how AR works in a real world, I could refute everything you're saying, as could anyone.
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No, you can't. I think you missed an important point. The examples I gave you were not theories of what I think could happen, those are things you could refute. What I gave you is what has already happened, and happens every season in the areas I spoke about. You cannot refute what has already happened. This is not my "guess" as to what will happen, it's what is really going on. I have seen numerous basket racked 8, 9 and 10 pointers shot when the guy would have been happy to shoot the spike or 4 pointer that preceded the bigger buck down the trail. You can't refute that, it happens all the time. Not a theory, a fact.

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Many feel that the hunter who "would have" shot a 1.5yr old buck, didn't get a buck at all! Older buckls are harder to kill, and the fella sitting on a bucket 100yrds off the road ain't likely to kill too many of them. If your theory was accurate, PA would have had almost the same number of bucks killed this year, except mostly 2.5 and older.
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I never said that every hunter who passed up a spike would kill a 2.5 yr old, so please don't twist my statements or put words on my keyboard. Actually, this is what was posted:
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Therefore, a hunter who would normally be satisfied with a spike or 4 point is forced to wait on the yearling with an 8 point rack, or a 2.5 or older deer. Being forced to shoot a 2.5 yr old deer when normally a 1.5 would have been shot certainly will result in more 2.5 yr olds being taken. ...Just how often this happens actually depends on the hunting pressure in the region. ...
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I never said that it would be a one-for-one type deal. My point was that some bucks will be taken in place of the spike or forkie, which brings us back to this point from my earlier post...
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with more (notice this says more, not all) of those hunters who would normally shoot a spike and be out of the woods, waiting on the older deer, and more of those older deer being taken, there are FEWER of the older age class deer in the herd. Had the weekend warrior been permitted to shoot a scrubby spike, that 2.5 year old 8 point that came down the trail 30 minutes behind him would likely have lived to be a 3.5 yr old 8 or 10 point. This results in the age class being set back a year, not advanced, because now that yearling spike that was protected has to make it through two more seasons to reach the same age that our 2.5 yr old 8 point would have reached next season.
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please read what I type and don't embelish my words to portray a worst case, extreme or absolute sense of dismay.

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Anyway, we could argue theories all day, I was pointing out there were no "facts" to dispute ARs not working.
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You're right, we could debate theories all day long, but I don't think it would be much of a debate. We probably agree on many of the QDM theories out there. You asked me to show you where it hasn't worked. I gave you the zones and results since AR's were implemented. Look at it as an experiment. Look at the data before the implementation, and after the new regs, and analyze the results. In this case, the results were fewer bucks, and fewer big bucks in the places I cited. Also, zones with no AR's are pumping out big bucks. Coincidence? Maybe, but no more a coincidence than any example of AR success out there either.

One a side note, have you seen the pictures of the 196 inch deer taken during gun season?

Edited by - NJ_Bowhntr on 01/21/2003 13:52:29