Tough one to answer. Because it is statistically easier to draw a cow tag than bull, and some areas are easier to draw than others. (Because nobody puts in for them.) They don't hold a lot of moose and/or are mostly private land which makes access hard.
I've just been turned down . . . again. I now have 9 pref points. I don't expect to draw for another 3 or 4 years cause the area I want will take 12 or so points to draw for a bull.
You stand a better chance drawing on your first year because our G&F reserves a small percentage of tags for each area JUST FOR those first time applicants, both resident and non. If they didn't, what would be the point of ever applying? I know of a hunter who drew a moose tag his first time . . . waited the required 5 years before applying again . . . AND DREW AGAIN!!!!
In fact, it's because of this that I do not recommend buying points. Be a first time drawer every year! You'd probably get it sooner. And if you're in Alberta, why on earth would you want a Wyoming moose?! (lol)