RE: Do you think this shot is fatal?
Are you marking your blood trail? This helps see how the animal is moving. Wet your finger and wipe it on some of the dried blood - it may not be blood at all.
I'd be willing to bet that you have pushed the animal and it has button hooked on you a time or two, and that you have been close enough to spit on it. I wish I were close enough to help.
A second pair eyes is an invaluable asset when tracking. You need to track with both your eyes and ears and be patient. A lack of patience is responsible for losing a lot of animals, but is sounds like this isn't a problem for you.
This deer is in it's home territory and it is unlikely it will leave.
Bowhunter