Fairly good assessment.The hit was way up front, immediatly behind a front leg. I had about a country mile (give or take) of goodies before the arrow would have reached his gut. But, as you indicated, that is where the arrow would have eventually ended up given the angle of the shot and sufficient penetration. I would have been thrilled for the arrow to have stayed in him. But alas it was not meant to be........ The good news is that it was a learning experience for me.