Gettin Tight!!
11-16-2007 | 02:30 PM
#12
Nontypical Buck
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,281
Likes: 0
From: Wright, WY
RE: Gettin Tight!!
Don't get your hopes up fellas. We said we were going to win and we will win. We have 5 bucks down and a few more on the way, shortly. We like to let people think they are breaking away and then swoop in and steal the thunder.
On a serious note, I don't think anyone will reach the 1000 mark this year unless of course it is us!
On a serious note, I don't think anyone will reach the 1000 mark this year unless of course it is us!
11-20-2007 | 02:35 PM
#16
Thread Starter
Giant Nontypical
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 5,497
Likes: 0
From: Dover, PA USA
RE: Gettin Tight!!
1. 638
Not for much longer........[:-]
Just got word that our 6th teammate scored on a 135" ish buck in IL. (BigCountry)
So after "Hammerman" gets his scored and entered and Mitch (Big Country)checks in, We'll be a forky away from 800". LOL
Anyone smell that?..........sniff...........sniff.........???
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Smells like?
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sniff?
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yep definitely smells like......
FIRST PLACE!! (again)
11-21-2007 | 11:00 AM
#18
Typical Buck
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 920
Likes: 0
From: Butler, Pa (back home after all these years)
RE: Gettin Tight!!
DO not remind me TEAM RINGER...lol[8D] Taem 31 was strong out of the gate but we sorta fizzled. BUT the season is not over.Stranger things have happened.
11-22-2007 | 11:19 AM
#19
Typical Buck
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 998
Likes: 0
From: Nanjemoy, MD
RE: Gettin Tight!!
Some statistical thoughts on the 2007 contest so far...
(Added in edit: I left out some recent data in my original postand modifiedthis post accordingly)
Since most of the major gun seasons have or will be starting around Thanksgiving, there will be a significant fall off in entries.
2006 avg buck score: 101 inches (410 participants), std dev ~38
2007 avg buck score: 109.5 inches (490 participants), std dev ~30
That's a significant improvement in quality of bucks being entered - either more bigger bucks are available and/or hunters are holding out for better deer. Also note thathunters are posting the components of scores -several errors were caught (e.g. the 4 circumference measurements), and part of the increase could be due to better scoring technique. The smaller standard deviation for 2007 means fewer racksare much bigger or smaller than the overallaverage).
Ifhunters are holding out for better racks, we may see a drop in the ~26% "success" ratefor 2006.The number of 2007 entriesto date is103; the expected number at this point in time is 117 entries to maintain 26%average success. There were 98 entriesat this point in time for the 2006 contest - remember that there are80morehunters in the 2007 contestthan were in the 2006 contest.
Here is a chart showing the total inches reported on a weekly basis (there's that same Oct lull!):
One caution in this type of chart: hunter effort is not equal from week to week! Of course the fat lady has yet to sing; but based on past contests, I think it is likely that there will be less than 15 moreentries from nowuntil the end of the contest. (Or any given team has only a 1/3 chance of scoring a new buck - disregarding any bucks acknowledged in team threads but not reported in the scoring thread, of course).
So with the tight race, do not expect any dark horse team to come out of nowhere and take over.
-fsh
(Added in edit: I left out some recent data in my original postand modifiedthis post accordingly)
Since most of the major gun seasons have or will be starting around Thanksgiving, there will be a significant fall off in entries.
2006 avg buck score: 101 inches (410 participants), std dev ~38
2007 avg buck score: 109.5 inches (490 participants), std dev ~30
That's a significant improvement in quality of bucks being entered - either more bigger bucks are available and/or hunters are holding out for better deer. Also note thathunters are posting the components of scores -several errors were caught (e.g. the 4 circumference measurements), and part of the increase could be due to better scoring technique. The smaller standard deviation for 2007 means fewer racksare much bigger or smaller than the overallaverage).
Ifhunters are holding out for better racks, we may see a drop in the ~26% "success" ratefor 2006.The number of 2007 entriesto date is103; the expected number at this point in time is 117 entries to maintain 26%average success. There were 98 entriesat this point in time for the 2006 contest - remember that there are80morehunters in the 2007 contestthan were in the 2006 contest.
Here is a chart showing the total inches reported on a weekly basis (there's that same Oct lull!):
One caution in this type of chart: hunter effort is not equal from week to week! Of course the fat lady has yet to sing; but based on past contests, I think it is likely that there will be less than 15 moreentries from nowuntil the end of the contest. (Or any given team has only a 1/3 chance of scoring a new buck - disregarding any bucks acknowledged in team threads but not reported in the scoring thread, of course).
So with the tight race, do not expect any dark horse team to come out of nowhere and take over.
-fsh