OntElk

I would bet they are there based on what you described. Just been unlucky in your sightings. I would go out and pay more attention to sign rather than sightings. You find one fresh track, droppingand/or a feather and your question is answered.

Everything suggests that a turkeys presence in a given area in Springtime is based on hens nest success. If they had a good hatch based on habitat, pressure and predators then they will be back(or stay there). Coons are public enemy number 1 to a turkey so having them taken care of is great (only downside is if it's dogs running around at night chasing them up trees the whole pressure thing might work against you). Early season food can get them there and if you have good habitat they will stick around even after the food dries up.

I have this exact scenario in one spot. I waited years for the poulation to expand into our property. Birds had always been in the area down the road but never on ours. Last year put out corn very early and got tons of birds finally. I stopped feeding a full month before our season opened. Birds were still around and I shot a nice longbeard there. I figured we had perfect habitat and roost trees. I was right and the turkeys, once they found us, really seemed to like it.

This year is the next test. I have put out no feed whatsoever. I am going to the property in 2 weeks to scout. I expect to find the birds in full swing when I get there. I'll let you know........