Yeah it has been a little slow for the first couple of weeks of gun season here too! While I believe that the rut cycle happens at about the same time every year, I also believe that what "we" see of the rut has a lot to do with the weather and moon cycle.This year we had hot weather and a full moon. Did that mean they rutted less? NO! But the daylight rutting activity was a lot less!
Another thing I am beginning to notice is that in a cycle year like this, the rut is more sporadic and prolonged, versus having a strong, noticable "peak!"
That does give us a little hope though! With the right conditions, there is no reason to give up! You may see fresh scrapes and rut activity ANY day!