I agree with the 50/50. I always say that sometimes it is better to be lucky that good.

Got a story to that effect. Just last week a neighbor boy and his brother were rifle hunting. They were walking and saw a doe. Both shot and missed. 30 min later they were walking near some brush and he grunted and tickled a rattle bag. They heard crashing and out popped a big buck. The 14 yr old boy killed the buck with one shot. It was only 160 lb dressed 16 pt that rough grossed BC 165. Better to be lucky than good.