The state of Pennsylvania struggled with many of the issues we are discussing here before they moved to the decision on AR. Their biologists spent a great deal of time reviewing scientific information to base their decisions on. Here is the summation of their findings concerning protecting spike and forked antler yearlings, and its possible effects on future harvests...
PA State Biologists Summation...
Protecting yearling bucks with fewer than 3 or 4 points to an antler will degrade antlers of future bucks.
This statement relates to how well a yearling buck's antlers represent the quality of the buck's genes. Research from Mississippi and Texas - where most antler research has occurred - differ. Results from Mississippi State University suggest that yearling antler points provide little information about the genetics of a buck. On the other hand, research from the Kerr Wildlife Management Area in Texas suggests that yearling antler points do reflect the genetic quality of a buck.
An independent review by an animal breeding and genetics expert concluded that problems existed with the data used by both states and, therefore, that no strong evidence exists for either conclusion. Despite the important role of a buck's mother in his antler characteristics, neither the Mississippi nor Texas results have provided valid estimates of maternal effects on antler growth. Studies specifically designed to evaluate maternal effects are needed. Also the Texas data include high levels of inbreeding - no new deer have been introduced to the deer pens since the 1970s -and many of the deer are related to one buck, "Big Charlie."
A recent review of the scientific literature on genetics in hunted populations concluded that there is little evidence available to suggest that hunting, including selective harvests, has long-term genetic consequences. One reason for this conclusion is the combination of genetics and harvest regulations apparently diminish suspected negative impacts. For example, if antler restrictions did selectively harvest "better" bucks, antlerless harvests are generally nonselective in their removal of "better" or "poorer" does. Thus, a continued mixing of "better" and "poorer" genes throughout the deer herd reduces the amount of change.
We do know that genetics is just one of many factors that determine the number of points on a yearling buck. A buck's mother and her genes, nutrition, health and other factors affect antler points. All these factors create a situation where there is no strong evidence that the new antler restriction will hurt or improve genetics of Pennsylvania's deer herd.