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Old 04-16-2005 | 04:23 AM
  #69  
bow27
Fork Horn
 
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 102
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From: New York
Default RE: Pa. Deer #'s down! Duhhhhhhh!!!!

ddear, please tell me you didn't learn this in math class. You just can't add the percentages from each year together and say that an 8% decrease per year over 4 years reduced the herd by 32%. This isn't even in the same ball park considering you have to also take into consideration herd growth, mortality rates etc...

here's an example just to prove a point.

you have a deer herd of 100,000 and reduce it by 8% which leaves you with 92,000 deer. now if that population increases by just 10% due to fawn births it would put it at 101,200. Year two decrease of 8% would put it at 93,104 with a 10% birth rate putting it back at 102,414. Therefore after 4 years of an 8% decrease you population would be 104,887 deer. So even though it may help prove your point to just forget how math works in reality an 8% decrease when taking all the factors into consideration turns out to actually be a 4.8% increase. It's funny how numbers work when you know how to use them. By the way...an 8% decrease on a population over 4 years (without taking any other factors into consideration) would actually be a 28% decrease in case you wanted to know.
If what bearklr says is true, then in 2001 the deer take of 486,000 represented 8% of the total deer pop. Pa must have a lot of deer! about 5 million!
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