Rutting Moon tonight. What's it mean?
10-27-2015, 11:33 AM
#1
Giant Nontypical
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Darien, IL
Posts: 6,744
Rutting Moon tonight. What's it mean?
Wayne Laroche/Charles Alsheimer Lunar 2015 Rut Predictions
As many of you know, each year Deer & Deer Hunting’s Charles Alsheimer releases a series of rut predictions based on a LUNAR CALENDAR. Today, we’ll be sharing the first phase of these rut predictions – those being the basics of what Alsheimer’s Lunar Calendar predicts for the 2015 rut.
But first – lets recap the basis for these predictions. Alsheimer and wildlife biologist Wayne Laroche have been studying the timing of the rut for nearly 20 years now and these predictions are based on their findings. According to Deer & Deer Hunting’s 2015 Whitetail Calendar and Rut Predictions, “The rut predictor is BASED ON A MODEL THAT LINKS CYCLICAL CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S SOLAR AND LUNAR ILLUNINATIONS TO THE WHITETAIL’S REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE. Wayne and Alsheimer HYPOTHESIZE THAT SUNLIGHT AND MOONLIGHT PROVIDE ENVIRONMENTAL CUES THAT SET, TRIGGER AND SYNCHRONIZE BREEDING.”
Ultimately, according to this theory THE SECOND FULL MOON AFTER THE AUTUMN EQUINOX IS BELIEVED TO TRIGGER THE PEAK IN RUTTING ACTIVITY, and Wayne and Alsheimer’s predictions revolve around this “Rutting Moon”.
So that said – when does the “Rutting Moon” hit this year and what will that mean for rutting activity in 2015?
***
This year the “Rutting Moon” is EARLIER THAN LAST WEEK YEAR BY ABOUT A WEEK, falling on October 27th. That’s compared to a Rutting Moon of November 6th in 2014 and the especially late Rutting Moon in 2013 of November 17th. That late moon in 2013, according to Laroche/Alsheimer, resulted in a “trickle rut” with most rutting activity happening later than usual (third or fourth weeks in November), with other peaks and valleys occurring sporadically over late October and mid November. Meanwhile, the 2014 Rutting Moon fell in the sweet spot of early November, which supposedly syncs up well with other rutting factors – and results in a synchronized and frenzied rut.
That said, what does this even earlier October 27th “Rutting Moon” mean for the rut in 2015? Well, according to this theory, this would mean that the majority of rutting behavior should be earlier than last year, but still relatively in line with the “typical” whitetail rut we’re used to seeing. Rutting activity looks to be somewhat similar to which we saw in 2012, when the Rutting Moon fell on October 29th and during the 2012 rut I saw strong rutting activity during that late October/early November time period.
According to Alsheimer’s Lunar Calendar, major “seeking” behavior should pick up around October 20th and continue until around October 27th, when major “chasing” should begin. This peak in visible rutting activity will continue until around November 3rd when the “tending” phase should be kicking into gear and continue through the 10th.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR HUNTERS? If you believe these predictions, it would mean that the typical “prime time” of the first week or two of November should be, as usual, a great time to be in the woods! But you might be seeing even more action than usual during that last week of October as well. According to this prediction, October 25th – November 3rd should be some of the best hunting of the entire season, when the most seeking and chasing will be happening, which is in fact the “rutting behavior” that hunters are most interested in seeing. Major rutting activity, to a slightly lesser degree, should continue on through the 10th.
The Traditional View on Rut Prediction Theories
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AISLE, when it comes to rut timing theories, many other biologists and whitetail experts believe that the timing of the actual rut (peak breeding) is NOT VARIABLE NOR IMPACTED BY LUNAR FACTORS (excluding some Southern US regions – where rut timing is very scattered). IN FACT, ACCORDING TO MANY STUDIES, THE ACTUAL PEAK OF BREEDING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT YEAR AFETR YEAR.
According to a recent publication from The Quality Deer Management Association, “The bottom line is northern whitetails have a narrow breeding window to optimize doe and fawn health and survival. This is why numerous studies across the northern United States and Canada LOOKING AT CONCEPTION DATES SHOW VERY LITTLE YEAR-TO-YEAR VARIATION. In fact, these breeding dates are amazingly consistent from year to year – REGARDLESS OF MOON PHASE. WEATHER PATTERNS OR OTHER VARIABLES.”
Expanding on this point, QDMA Director of Communications Lindsay Thomas Jr explains “THE SCIENCE ON THIS IS DECISIVE. A significant number of scientific, peer-reviewed studies have shown the timing of the rut in any particular location is triggered by photoperiod, or day length – not by the moon, or temperature, or anything else…I think hunters often confuse visible rut behaviors, like chasing and grunting, with the peak of breeding. When you document breeding dates in a location, they actually change very little year to year, even though the dates of peak rut behaviors might vary. That’s because weather, moon phase and food sources – things that fluctuate widely year to year – affect deer movement patterns. But even when the weather reduces deer movement, you find that breeding still takes place the same time it normally does. If a doe is coming into estrous, a warm front isn’t going to change that.”
In another article produced by the Quality Deer Management Association, it was explained that, “SCIENTISTS HAVE KNOWN FOR DECADES THAT THE LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT EACH DAY, WHICH FLUCTUATES THROUGHOUT THE SEASONS, SERVES AS THE TRIGGER FOR HORMONEAL CHANGES IN DEER THAT BRING ON BREEDING AND THE RUT – THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE TRIGGER VARIES WIDELY IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AND DEER POPULATIONS FOR SEVERAL OTHER REASONS. BUT STORIES PERSIST AMONG HUNTERS THAT THE MOON PLAYS A ROLE.”
That said, Rod Cumberland, a deer management biologist for the Canadian province of New Brunswick, conducted a study examining a data set of more than 1,600 does providing fetal data across nine years to determine conception dates. Produced by the QDMA, results show of that analysis, and the fact that peak breeding is very consistent. According to the researchers, “our analysis revealed that the relationship between annual breeding dates and moon phase chronology was highly variable. Therefore, we believe it is not necessary to revise the conventional understanding among deer biologists that breeding dates are primarily influenced by photoperiod (day length) and are relatively consistent among years within a particular population.”
Bill Winke of MidwestWhitetail.com seems to concur with all of this, as he is quoted saying” “I have not seen a rut predictor that was actually more accurate than the calendar. The rut is triggered by photoperiod – the amount of sunlight (number of hours) in each day. As the season progresses, that triggers the rut at pretty much the same time every year. You may see more behavior on certain days than others related to weather or hunting pressure, but the actual conception dates of the does are pretty consistent from year to year. Missouri recently did a study back-dating fetuses from late season harvested does and they proved that over a three year period the peak breeding date (the date when the most does were in estrous) was November 15 plus or minus one day. I always like to hunt during the week that starts ten days before the peak. In this case November 5 – 12. It is tough to beat that time frame.”
As many of you know, each year Deer & Deer Hunting’s Charles Alsheimer releases a series of rut predictions based on a LUNAR CALENDAR. Today, we’ll be sharing the first phase of these rut predictions – those being the basics of what Alsheimer’s Lunar Calendar predicts for the 2015 rut.
But first – lets recap the basis for these predictions. Alsheimer and wildlife biologist Wayne Laroche have been studying the timing of the rut for nearly 20 years now and these predictions are based on their findings. According to Deer & Deer Hunting’s 2015 Whitetail Calendar and Rut Predictions, “The rut predictor is BASED ON A MODEL THAT LINKS CYCLICAL CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S SOLAR AND LUNAR ILLUNINATIONS TO THE WHITETAIL’S REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE. Wayne and Alsheimer HYPOTHESIZE THAT SUNLIGHT AND MOONLIGHT PROVIDE ENVIRONMENTAL CUES THAT SET, TRIGGER AND SYNCHRONIZE BREEDING.”
Ultimately, according to this theory THE SECOND FULL MOON AFTER THE AUTUMN EQUINOX IS BELIEVED TO TRIGGER THE PEAK IN RUTTING ACTIVITY, and Wayne and Alsheimer’s predictions revolve around this “Rutting Moon”.
So that said – when does the “Rutting Moon” hit this year and what will that mean for rutting activity in 2015?
***
This year the “Rutting Moon” is EARLIER THAN LAST WEEK YEAR BY ABOUT A WEEK, falling on October 27th. That’s compared to a Rutting Moon of November 6th in 2014 and the especially late Rutting Moon in 2013 of November 17th. That late moon in 2013, according to Laroche/Alsheimer, resulted in a “trickle rut” with most rutting activity happening later than usual (third or fourth weeks in November), with other peaks and valleys occurring sporadically over late October and mid November. Meanwhile, the 2014 Rutting Moon fell in the sweet spot of early November, which supposedly syncs up well with other rutting factors – and results in a synchronized and frenzied rut.
That said, what does this even earlier October 27th “Rutting Moon” mean for the rut in 2015? Well, according to this theory, this would mean that the majority of rutting behavior should be earlier than last year, but still relatively in line with the “typical” whitetail rut we’re used to seeing. Rutting activity looks to be somewhat similar to which we saw in 2012, when the Rutting Moon fell on October 29th and during the 2012 rut I saw strong rutting activity during that late October/early November time period.
According to Alsheimer’s Lunar Calendar, major “seeking” behavior should pick up around October 20th and continue until around October 27th, when major “chasing” should begin. This peak in visible rutting activity will continue until around November 3rd when the “tending” phase should be kicking into gear and continue through the 10th.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR HUNTERS? If you believe these predictions, it would mean that the typical “prime time” of the first week or two of November should be, as usual, a great time to be in the woods! But you might be seeing even more action than usual during that last week of October as well. According to this prediction, October 25th – November 3rd should be some of the best hunting of the entire season, when the most seeking and chasing will be happening, which is in fact the “rutting behavior” that hunters are most interested in seeing. Major rutting activity, to a slightly lesser degree, should continue on through the 10th.
The Traditional View on Rut Prediction Theories
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AISLE, when it comes to rut timing theories, many other biologists and whitetail experts believe that the timing of the actual rut (peak breeding) is NOT VARIABLE NOR IMPACTED BY LUNAR FACTORS (excluding some Southern US regions – where rut timing is very scattered). IN FACT, ACCORDING TO MANY STUDIES, THE ACTUAL PEAK OF BREEDING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT YEAR AFETR YEAR.
According to a recent publication from The Quality Deer Management Association, “The bottom line is northern whitetails have a narrow breeding window to optimize doe and fawn health and survival. This is why numerous studies across the northern United States and Canada LOOKING AT CONCEPTION DATES SHOW VERY LITTLE YEAR-TO-YEAR VARIATION. In fact, these breeding dates are amazingly consistent from year to year – REGARDLESS OF MOON PHASE. WEATHER PATTERNS OR OTHER VARIABLES.”
Expanding on this point, QDMA Director of Communications Lindsay Thomas Jr explains “THE SCIENCE ON THIS IS DECISIVE. A significant number of scientific, peer-reviewed studies have shown the timing of the rut in any particular location is triggered by photoperiod, or day length – not by the moon, or temperature, or anything else…I think hunters often confuse visible rut behaviors, like chasing and grunting, with the peak of breeding. When you document breeding dates in a location, they actually change very little year to year, even though the dates of peak rut behaviors might vary. That’s because weather, moon phase and food sources – things that fluctuate widely year to year – affect deer movement patterns. But even when the weather reduces deer movement, you find that breeding still takes place the same time it normally does. If a doe is coming into estrous, a warm front isn’t going to change that.”
In another article produced by the Quality Deer Management Association, it was explained that, “SCIENTISTS HAVE KNOWN FOR DECADES THAT THE LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT EACH DAY, WHICH FLUCTUATES THROUGHOUT THE SEASONS, SERVES AS THE TRIGGER FOR HORMONEAL CHANGES IN DEER THAT BRING ON BREEDING AND THE RUT – THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE TRIGGER VARIES WIDELY IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AND DEER POPULATIONS FOR SEVERAL OTHER REASONS. BUT STORIES PERSIST AMONG HUNTERS THAT THE MOON PLAYS A ROLE.”
That said, Rod Cumberland, a deer management biologist for the Canadian province of New Brunswick, conducted a study examining a data set of more than 1,600 does providing fetal data across nine years to determine conception dates. Produced by the QDMA, results show of that analysis, and the fact that peak breeding is very consistent. According to the researchers, “our analysis revealed that the relationship between annual breeding dates and moon phase chronology was highly variable. Therefore, we believe it is not necessary to revise the conventional understanding among deer biologists that breeding dates are primarily influenced by photoperiod (day length) and are relatively consistent among years within a particular population.”
Bill Winke of MidwestWhitetail.com seems to concur with all of this, as he is quoted saying” “I have not seen a rut predictor that was actually more accurate than the calendar. The rut is triggered by photoperiod – the amount of sunlight (number of hours) in each day. As the season progresses, that triggers the rut at pretty much the same time every year. You may see more behavior on certain days than others related to weather or hunting pressure, but the actual conception dates of the does are pretty consistent from year to year. Missouri recently did a study back-dating fetuses from late season harvested does and they proved that over a three year period the peak breeding date (the date when the most does were in estrous) was November 15 plus or minus one day. I always like to hunt during the week that starts ten days before the peak. In this case November 5 – 12. It is tough to beat that time frame.”
10-27-2015, 11:35 AM
#2
Giant Nontypical
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Darien, IL
Posts: 6,744
What I believe is that it is not the Rutting Moon so much that gets the bucks behaving differently little by little, it is just what is going to happen and the moon happens to go full around then. Behaving differently such as splitting into bachelor groups, running off potential competition, cruising more, eating less, eventually stalking the girls, etc..
But the does just keep on keeping on and early on have to somewhat deal with pesky bucks, eventually protect their rear ends and in the end they will give it up.
I think the whole moon thing goes back many many, many, many years. Like when they didn't have clocks and moon phases were used to mark time.
But the does just keep on keeping on and early on have to somewhat deal with pesky bucks, eventually protect their rear ends and in the end they will give it up.
I think the whole moon thing goes back many many, many, many years. Like when they didn't have clocks and moon phases were used to mark time.
10-27-2015, 12:08 PM
#3
Fork Horn
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: e tenn
Posts: 127
Folks have been debating this theory for years...
Just my opinion based on my personal observations. I don't think the moon phase, full or otherwise, has any influence on intensity or timing of what we typically refer to as the rut.
But I do think a full moon has "some what" of an influence on the deers feeding patterns/digestive cycle with in that period in general tho, that applies to some other nocturnal animals as well. And that applies year round.
That's just my thoughts, YMMV
.
Just my opinion based on my personal observations. I don't think the moon phase, full or otherwise, has any influence on intensity or timing of what we typically refer to as the rut.
But I do think a full moon has "some what" of an influence on the deers feeding patterns/digestive cycle with in that period in general tho, that applies to some other nocturnal animals as well. And that applies year round.
That's just my thoughts, YMMV
.
Last edited by tndrbstr; 10-27-2015 at 12:51 PM.
10-27-2015, 01:56 PM
#4
Dominant Buck
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: On an Island in Vermont
Posts: 22,605
I knew Wayne Laroche when he was Vt Commissioner of Fish and Wildlife. Pennsylvania is lucky to get him as head of their wildlife dept. Unfortunately that position in Vermont is a political appointment and he was not re-hired when we changed governor. His education was in fish and wildlife biology and he knows his stuff and is a pleasure to work with. What we have since he left leaves a lot to be desired.
10-27-2015, 02:01 PM
#5
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location:
Posts: 2,186
Ol' Wayne and Charlie's "Ruttin' Moon" deal as far as it goes where I hunt in southeast Alabama pretty much means squat. The does are not going to be in heat where I hunt for another month at the earliest. We have what i have heard referred to as a "Trickle" rut. Whatever that means. I have hunted in this area of Alabama for over 40 years. Where i have hunted these past 12 years, there is a definite early December cycle then a weaker late January cycle. Where I hunted for some 25+ years just about 30 miles NW of where I do now, the does did not come into heat until mid to late January. And there were a few years when there was no indication of does being in heat until well after the season has ended .... Jan. 31. I have seen scrape lines and active scrapes develop as early as about now ..... or not until after Turkey Day. I have hit the peak almost perfectly as far as bucks chasing does hard during the first week of December and missed the estrus cycles competely despite spending over 40 days in the woods during the usual December and January estrus times. A buddy of mine has 100's of trail camera photos taken over the past 12 years showing big, mature bucks "pushing" does and he has caught a few breeding as late as mid March. Many years fawns are still spotted way down into late November. It is not unusual to see 50 - 60# yearlings and 25-30# spotted fawns in the same group. It's truly a weird deal down this way.
Last edited by Mojotex; 10-27-2015 at 02:11 PM.
10-27-2015, 05:40 PM
#6
Typical Buck
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Posts: 516
This rutting moon stuff is useless where I hunt in northeast Florida. I found active scapes and rubs in mid to late August and had the majority of bucks and a couple mature bucks in morning and evening pictures. The season starts Sept 19. I did get a 8pt opening day in the evening. But since I got my buck I haven't had a single day picture of a buck and haven't seen any scrapes. The rubs are still there obviously but really don't know how to see if there new out been hit again. I think it's late rut to post Rut. Usually the fawns are born around Turkey season which is April. But I could be wrong.
Last edited by JGFLHunter; 10-27-2015 at 05:45 PM.
10-28-2015, 09:44 AM
#7
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Virginia / West Virginia
Posts: 4,906
His research does not really apply to down south, and he says so. Its basically from mid atlantic and northward to the northeast and midwest. I don't set my watch to the moon by any means, but have followed his studies on this for a long time and in my experience, its pretty accurate much of the time.
Either way, I'll be out there the next few weeks!
Either way, I'll be out there the next few weeks!
10-28-2015, 02:41 PM
#8
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: VA
Posts: 1,921
Folks have been debating this theory for years...
Just my opinion based on my personal observations. I don't think the moon phase, full or otherwise, has any influence on intensity or timing of what we typically refer to as the rut.
But I do think a full moon has "some what" of an influence on the deers feeding patterns/digestive cycle with in that period in general tho, that applies to some other nocturnal animals as well. And that applies year round.
That's just my thoughts, YMMV
.
Just my opinion based on my personal observations. I don't think the moon phase, full or otherwise, has any influence on intensity or timing of what we typically refer to as the rut.
But I do think a full moon has "some what" of an influence on the deers feeding patterns/digestive cycle with in that period in general tho, that applies to some other nocturnal animals as well. And that applies year round.
That's just my thoughts, YMMV
.
10-28-2015, 03:52 PM
#9
Fork Horn
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 489
I feel the moon phase has much to do with the estrous cycle of does, coupled with weather change.
I have found more so is the water fronts and temps to have more effect than anything. Temps above normal rut is slow, temps below normal and we have a frenzy rut.
As far as those 2 cats predictions...what ever.
I have found more so is the water fronts and temps to have more effect than anything. Temps above normal rut is slow, temps below normal and we have a frenzy rut.
As far as those 2 cats predictions...what ever.
