Weaponized Math: Precision Rifle Blog Series How Much does it Matter?
09-23-2022, 06:57 PM
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Nontypical Buck
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Join Date: Oct 2009
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Weaponized Math: Precision Rifle Blog Series How Much does it Matter?
**Weaponized Math Disclaimer**
Since this is a Precision and Long Range shooting sub-forum, some of the topics here may be rather math dense and occasionally technical in nature. For those not interested, scroll past. For those with a kink for math, physics, and stats, hopefully these topics will pique interest in spur conversation.
**Weaponized Math Disclaimer**
A recurring topic came to pass again last month for me about the value of dispensing powder to within +/-0.02grn vs. +/-0.1grn, which spurred me to think about typing up a reference post for this forum (forthcoming). During that conversation, I realized that the last handful of years has seen the emergence of a new generation of long range shooters which have come to the sport AFTER the publication of the original work by Bryan Litz, as well as AFTER Cal Zant’s fantastic series of articles circa 2015 which utilized Litz’s toolkit, so I’ll link these articles here. Cal used Litz’s tool to support a series of articles on Precision Rifle Blog to describe the importance – or rather, the sensitivity – of hit percentage upon varying extents of error for multiple aspects of long range precision. Ultimately, these articles describe what is known as a “sensitivity analysis” – meaning an analysis of how “sensitive” end results might be to one source of error or another. The Litz Weapon Employment Zone (WEZ) Tool uses what is known in statistics as a “monte carlo simulator” to run a large number of combinations of independent variables, and then further creates visual representations of the potential groups on target, allowing users to SEE how much different magnitudes of error can influence their downrange hit percentages.
Using Litz’s tool, Cal produced a series of articles – linked below – reflecting the respective sensitivity analysis for each of several contributors to downrange precision. The results are fantastic, and for new shooters coming to the sport, these are critical guides to read and understand:
PRB Article Links (Copy these as hyperlinks):
https://precisionrifleblog.com/category/ballistics/how-much-does-it-matter/]PRB: How Much Does It Matter Landing Page
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/06/09/how-much-does-it-matter-overall-summary/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Overall Summary
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/05/14/how-much-does-wind-reading-ability-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Wind Reading Accuracy
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/05/01/how-much-does-accurate-ranging-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Accurate Ranging
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/25/how-much-does-cartridge-matter/]PRB How Much Does it Matter? – Cartridge Choice
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/28/how-much-does-muzzle-velocity-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Muzzle Velocity
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/18/how-much-does-sd-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Velocity Consistency & Standard Deviation
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/15/how-much-does-group-size-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Group Size
As an example, one comparison made in this series is cartridge choice, summary graphic below. You can see the difference in predicted hit probability with the same errors and same raw precision applied to different cartridges. In this scenario, we can see 6creed and 6.5 creed have very similar hit probabilities, but naturally, 6 creed has much less recoil than the 6.5, making it a much better choice for the particular sport of Precision Rifle Competition.
Since this is a Precision and Long Range shooting sub-forum, some of the topics here may be rather math dense and occasionally technical in nature. For those not interested, scroll past. For those with a kink for math, physics, and stats, hopefully these topics will pique interest in spur conversation.
**Weaponized Math Disclaimer**
A recurring topic came to pass again last month for me about the value of dispensing powder to within +/-0.02grn vs. +/-0.1grn, which spurred me to think about typing up a reference post for this forum (forthcoming). During that conversation, I realized that the last handful of years has seen the emergence of a new generation of long range shooters which have come to the sport AFTER the publication of the original work by Bryan Litz, as well as AFTER Cal Zant’s fantastic series of articles circa 2015 which utilized Litz’s toolkit, so I’ll link these articles here. Cal used Litz’s tool to support a series of articles on Precision Rifle Blog to describe the importance – or rather, the sensitivity – of hit percentage upon varying extents of error for multiple aspects of long range precision. Ultimately, these articles describe what is known as a “sensitivity analysis” – meaning an analysis of how “sensitive” end results might be to one source of error or another. The Litz Weapon Employment Zone (WEZ) Tool uses what is known in statistics as a “monte carlo simulator” to run a large number of combinations of independent variables, and then further creates visual representations of the potential groups on target, allowing users to SEE how much different magnitudes of error can influence their downrange hit percentages.
Using Litz’s tool, Cal produced a series of articles – linked below – reflecting the respective sensitivity analysis for each of several contributors to downrange precision. The results are fantastic, and for new shooters coming to the sport, these are critical guides to read and understand:
PRB Article Links (Copy these as hyperlinks):
https://precisionrifleblog.com/category/ballistics/how-much-does-it-matter/]PRB: How Much Does It Matter Landing Page
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/06/09/how-much-does-it-matter-overall-summary/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Overall Summary
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/05/14/how-much-does-wind-reading-ability-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Wind Reading Accuracy
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/05/01/how-much-does-accurate-ranging-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Accurate Ranging
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/25/how-much-does-cartridge-matter/]PRB How Much Does it Matter? – Cartridge Choice
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/28/how-much-does-muzzle-velocity-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Muzzle Velocity
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/18/how-much-does-sd-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Velocity Consistency & Standard Deviation
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/15/how-much-does-group-size-matter/]PRB How Much Does It Matter? – Group Size
As an example, one comparison made in this series is cartridge choice, summary graphic below. You can see the difference in predicted hit probability with the same errors and same raw precision applied to different cartridges. In this scenario, we can see 6creed and 6.5 creed have very similar hit probabilities, but naturally, 6 creed has much less recoil than the 6.5, making it a much better choice for the particular sport of Precision Rifle Competition.
