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-   -   What's your prediction? (https://www.huntingnet.com/forum/politics/423889-whats-your-prediction.html)

hubby11 08-20-2020 08:11 AM

What's your prediction?
 
I read this forum far more than I post, shame on me. So here's one; give your predictions for the outcome of November 3. Who will win the popular vote and by how much? Who will win the electoral vote (and hence the presidency/vice-presidency) and by how much? Minimal commentary, just your predictions. Whoever is closest wins bragging rights.

Iíll start.

Popular vote: Biden/Harris will win by 5-6%, meaning about 53-54% for Biden/Harris, 47-48% for Trump/Pence.
Electoral vote: Biden/Harris 319, Trump/Pence 229

Beau Ouiville 08-20-2020 09:22 AM


Originally Posted by hubby11 (Post 4379778)
Popular vote: Biden/Harris will win by 5-6%, meaning about 53-54% for Biden/Harris, 47-48% for Trump/Pence.
Electoral vote: Biden/Harris 319, Trump/Pence 229

I'm very close to your prediction.

I have Biden/Harris at 56%.
As to the electoral college, I think Biden will take FL (but not AZ or GA) and end up with 340 electoral votes.

https://www.270towin.com/


Fieldmouse 08-20-2020 10:37 AM

Not going to happen. Biden and harasment are imploding as we speak. It's going to be a landslide for Trump in both popular vote and in traditionally blue states. You Democrats think rioting and burning cities is a good look. I only hope you would continue to embrace that train of thought. It's working for you.

CalHunter 08-20-2020 11:34 AM

Trump with 310+ electoral votes. Popular vote by 2% either way. I don't think they've accurately gauged some of the swing states.

MudderChuck 08-20-2020 11:52 AM

I think Trump still has a few hand grenades in his pocket, the Democrats have thrown so many duds I doubt anybody but the really gullible will pay any attention. It is all about the swing vote and no telling what is going to happen until the very end.


ButchA 08-20-2020 02:15 PM

My honest opinion? 100% serious...

I predict a "stalemate" in November due to botched votes, mail-in ballots, etc... Trump going ape-sh** with accusations (rightfully so!), and Creepy Uncle Joe and the Hoe imploding, etc..
Sooooo... If a President is not elected by January, then the Speaker of The House temporarily takes over.

OMG... Do we really want that drunken, vile, woman taking charge?!? :eek2:

Bocajnala 08-20-2020 03:13 PM


Originally Posted by ButchA (Post 4379800)
My honest opinion? 100% serious...

I predict a "stalemate" in November due to botched votes, mail-in ballots, etc... Trump going ape-sh** with accusations (rightfully so!), and Creepy Uncle Joe and the Hoe imploding, etc..
Sooooo... If a President is not elected by January, then the Speaker of The House temporarily takes over.

OMG... Do we really want that drunken, vile, woman taking charge?!? :eek2:


Yikes

-Jake

ButchA 08-20-2020 04:03 PM


Originally Posted by Bocajnala (Post 4379801)
Yikes

-Jake

Tell me about it, Jake!!

I read it on another forum, and others verified it as per the Constitution!. If a President and Vice President are not duly elected and sworn in by January, then the Speaker of The House will preside temporarily until the matter is resolved... :eek:

elkman30 08-20-2020 05:25 PM

I think Trump will get at least 300 electoral votes. Biden seems to be running his campaign the same way Hillary did.

Beau Ouiville 08-20-2020 05:28 PM


Originally Posted by CalHunter (Post 4379791)
Trump with 310+ electoral votes. Popular vote by 2% either way. I don't think they've accurately gauged some of the swing states.


Originally Posted by elkman30 (Post 4379809)
I think Trump will get at least 300 electoral votes. Biden seems to be running his campaign the same way Hillary did.

Which swing states do you predict going to Trump?

elkman30 08-20-2020 05:33 PM

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for starters. I'm not sure about Ohio though. That could be a tough one to predict.

CalHunter 08-20-2020 05:49 PM

In looking at the link above to 270towin's forecast for November 2020 and comparing it to their forecast for November 2016, their maps looks somewhat similar aside from the tossup states. In this year (2020), I think Florida and a few other states like Georgia and North Carolina should at least be marked as leaning red. After 2016's results and looking at current DNC expenditures, I think Pennsylvania and Michigan should be moved to tossup status. It's still too early to say for sure but I don't think 270towin's analysis is accurate at this point.

grouch55 08-21-2020 07:15 AM

my experience this past week--- looked in 4 cities Trump yard signs ! first 3 were totally out and waiting for more, the 4th had 4 signs left out of 750 delivered 4 days before ! Republican offices can not keep up with demand--SILENT MAJORITY IS SPEAKING

Beau Ouiville 08-21-2020 07:22 AM

As they say, "Bet with your head; not with your heart."

Beau Ouiville 08-21-2020 09:12 AM

1 Attachment(s)

Originally Posted by CalHunter (Post 4379816)
In looking at the link above to 270towin's forecast for November 2020 and comparing it to their forecast for November 2016, their maps looks somewhat similar aside from the tossup states. In this year (2020), I think Florida and a few other states like Georgia and North Carolina should at least be marked as leaning red. After 2016's results and looking at current DNC expenditures, I think Pennsylvania and Michigan should be moved to tossup status. It's still too early to say for sure but I don't think 270towin's analysis is accurate at this point.

Well, Fox News says this:



elkman30 08-21-2020 10:18 AM

Aren't you the guy who bashes Fox News a lot? If you don't like them, why would you trust their poll?

CalHunter 08-21-2020 10:27 AM

I can see why Beau would post Fox News in response to my comment since I've certainly posted a lot of Fox's article before. However, this topic asked for my opinion, not Fox's. I posted my opinion above and Fox's poll doesn't really dissuade me from having this opinion. Grouch55's post above makes me even more sure of my opinion. With all of the spam callers nowadays and how most people won't answer a suspected spam caller, I'd be surprised if polls are really as accurate as they purport to be. The same goes for people who actually answer their phones and don't want to be labelled or attacked for their political viewpoint. As grouch55 put it, the silent majority is speaking (on vote day but not necessarily with pollsters).

hubby11 08-21-2020 10:42 AM


Originally Posted by elkman30 (Post 4379838)
Aren't you the guy who bashes Fox News a lot? If you don't like them, why would you trust their poll?

Not speaking for anyone, but if a network that is commonly perceived as right leaning puts out polls that are against its interest, it's not unreasonable to give those polls a little more weight.

Beau Ouiville 08-21-2020 11:10 AM


Originally Posted by elkman30 (Post 4379838)
Aren't you the guy who bashes Fox News a lot? If you don't like them, why would you trust their poll?

Because someone mistrusted the 270 to win numbers. If that is partisan, even Fox News says this ...

Let's depersonalize this, ok?

falcon 08-21-2020 12:09 PM

My prediction: Evil will triumph.:happy0001:

CalHunter 08-21-2020 03:27 PM

Falcon, I sure hope not. If we get Trump for another 4 years, many of us would be in a lot better position to weather the next storm.

MudderChuck 08-21-2020 07:37 PM

I think a few far out there scenarios are possible and maybe more relevant than counting votes.
I was always taught the vote is designed to replace armed revolution as a way to change high leadership.
Both parties are already contesting the election results and crying foul. There are already riots in some major cities. Police forces are being downsized and portrayed as the enemy in many places. IMO whichever way the country votes the situation is ripe for armed revolution or just flat out anarchy. Some instigators are already encouraging it.
Just a thought, but if the Democrats feared losing power they might just be arrogant enough to pre-plan a revolution as a last-ditch effort at power/control. Not beyond the realm of possibility. The formula for a serious revolution is 15% of the population willing to fight and around 40% giving tacit or material support. Are the numbers at the critical point yet?

CalHunter 08-22-2020 08:18 PM

I'm not willing to say that 15% (I think it's much less currently) wouldn't be stupid enough to start some armed revolution or anarchy but I don't think they'd get tacit or material support from another 40% of the country. I also don't think they'd up very well against the larger conservative gun owning % of the country who would not take kindly to gun toting idiots attempting to create anarchy in their neighborhoods. They're definitely building up towards it though.

elkman30 08-23-2020 08:27 PM

I don't see Trump losing. With all of the crazy stuff the dems are pulling, they must be worried that Trump will win.

salukipv1 08-25-2020 09:05 AM

Trump loses, claims it was a fraud.... becomes Dictator...

pretty scary to see republicans defending dictators and Russia these days...

elkman30 08-25-2020 09:42 AM

Vivid imagination.

WV 67 08-25-2020 10:59 AM

Pretty.scary having a country considering voting for gun confiscation , abortion at full term having the same bathrooms for either sex considering pedophilia as a sex gender etc etc and folks are gonna vote for that garbage LOL !!!! So American

RobertSubnet 08-25-2020 01:37 PM


Are the numbers at the critical point yet?
I don't think so. Keep in mind the riots are occurring in democrat run cities where the local "leadership" is sympathetic to the rioters. Once BLM/ANTIFA steps out of their safe-zone(s) and they are confronted with actual armed resistance they will run away like the cowards they are. We have seen this already: when armed citizens stand-up to these rioters, they go away. Imagine what would happen if rioters started getting shot - a lot of them? Those people would stop rioting very quickly.

I pray that nothing like that comes to pass. After the election I do expect there to be more civil unrest; encouraged by the "news" media, the losing side will vent their anger. But as winter sets in I expect rioters will calm down.

Fieldmouse 08-25-2020 05:22 PM


Originally Posted by salukipv1 (Post 4379997)
Trump loses, claims it was a fraud.... becomes Dictator...

pretty scary to see republicans defending dictators and Russia these days...

You've been sipping the Kool aid for too long. You're being a good lap dog for the democrat party. They are working on destabilizing this election so after Trump wins, they can continue to promote the riots in the street by claiming it was fraud.

Beau Ouiville 08-25-2020 06:12 PM


Originally Posted by Fieldmouse (Post 4380025)
They are working on destabilizing this election so after Trump wins, they can continue to promote the riots in the street by claiming it was fraud.

I thought it was Republicans messing with the mail. Maybe Dejoy is secretly a Democrat!

Fieldmouse 08-25-2020 06:38 PM


Originally Posted by Beau Ouiville (Post 4380026)
I thought it was Republicans messing with the mail. Maybe Dejoy is secretly a Democrat!

Really? You too have been sipping the Kool aid too long. Please point out what you thought Republicans we're doing? You're probably not aware the changes that have been in process were dictated by Congress in 2006 with Democrat support.

Beau Ouiville 08-25-2020 07:14 PM


Originally Posted by Fieldmouse (Post 4380027)
Really? You too have been sipping the Kool aid too long. Please point out what you thought Republicans we're doing? You're probably not aware the changes that have been in process were dictated by Congress in 2006 with Democrat support.

Have you seen what Dejoy said to the Congress? He promised to cut it out until after the election.

Fieldmouse 08-25-2020 07:42 PM


Originally Posted by Beau Ouiville (Post 4380028)
Have you seen what Dejoy said to the Congress? He promised to cut it out until after the election.

Yep, I did see that. Again, it has nothing to do with reality. It's all the false narrative. There isn't a single American who thinks the mail system was a smooth running machine. It's been messed up for decades and getting worse by the day. I bet you didn't know this but since the lock down, the mail system has had the best quarter in a decade. Their numbers were booming but somehow they're on the ropes all of a sudden? Seriously? This is about the Democrats finding a excuse why we may see another Reagan sweep. They didn't learn from 2016 because they had the Russian collision hoax to run on. They don't have that now which is why they have unleashed their brown shirts, the modern version of their KKK force on our cities. It's working for you. Please keep it up.

Fieldmouse 08-25-2020 08:39 PM

Let's not forget the arrogance of today's Democrat party. These democrat controlled states have signed on to an agreement regarding voting for president. If their own citizens don't vote the right way, they will void it and change their citizens choice.

MudderChuck 08-26-2020 01:37 AM


Originally Posted by Beau Ouiville (Post 4380026)
I thought it was Republicans messing with the mail. Maybe Dejoy is secretly a Democrat!

I personally think the Democrats encouraged vote by mail to stuff the ballot boxes. Then some Democrat realized the USPS was unlikely to be able to deal with the surge. Then it was cover your ass time and they dreamed up some conspiracy to blame it all on Trump.
In a nutshell just another incompetent Democrat scheme.
If they lose they have another reason to investigate or encourage the incorrigibles to riot. The deplorables vs the incorrigibles :)


archeryrob 08-26-2020 05:03 AM

This mail thing as a false flag to pump up fear into their base. Sometimes I wonder if people do any research or just listen to talking heads on the TV.

The former postmaster general was interviewed and said;
1) Some mail sorting machines have been scheduled to be removed for a long while because they are processing less mail, because less is sent. You ever notice now many Christmas cards you haven't gotten for a long time and other things like bills and you aren't mailing checks. It all adds up and e-mail and online banking has replaced the mail.
2) They need removed because they need to space to process packages which they have more of and it is the life blood to the postal service.
3) Not removing the machines will slow down packages and of course medications being shipped.

All politics aside the Postal Service is trying to reduce its cost and supply better service its customer base and how they use their service, now. DeJoy only said he would stop for now to appease them. The machines will come out in December or January, but they are still coming out.

Valorius 08-26-2020 07:24 AM

Trump in a massive landslide.


Beau Ouiville 08-26-2020 08:11 AM


Originally Posted by MudderChuck (Post 4380032)
If they lose they have another reason to investigate or encourage the incorrigibles to riot.

Trump is already claiming that if he loses it would be because of fraud. Has he seen the results of the midterms?

chazspot 08-26-2020 08:41 AM

I think Trump wins although I"m not sure by how much. My guess is the election will be close. The dems may have been able to secure it, but bad choice of nominees (again), and are owners of the unrest (looting, violence) in American cities. To them, antifa is a myth, and BLM is legitimate. Those are losing platforms.

Even MSNBC is reporting Trump is trending in a positive direction for covid concerns . My money is on Trump.

Fieldmouse 08-26-2020 09:09 AM


Originally Posted by Beau Ouiville (Post 4380045)
Trump is already claiming that if he loses it would be because of fraud. Has he seen the results of the midterms?

Yes and do you understand what happened in the midterms? That was the Russian collision hoax where the media was 24x7 claiming Trump collude but in the end we learned Hillary, Obama and the DNC actually did colluded with the Russians. I can't remember, did the DNC media ever run a correction? Oh, that's right, they've been trying to revive that lie lately.


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