Theory: NJ rut earlier in season due to QDM
#11
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 3,879

But you apparently overlooked the fact that Dr. R. also said this in nthe same paragraph.
What they found as the result of their studies is that breeding rates and productivity decreased and there was no significant change in the breeding window.
This quote is from the 2007-2008 AWR.
But will any changes be found after the new antler restrictions allow more bucks to reach the 2-year-old age class? To answer this question we will continue collecting conception data from roadkilled does as the deer population is modified by the new antler restrictions.
This quote is from the 2007-2008 AWR.
The average reproductive rate for all females
was 0.97 embryos/doe. The median conception date for all does was 11 November.
Eighty-nine percent of all breeding occurred between 16 October and 16 December,
with the median date fawns bred as 30 November, 3 weeks later than adult does.
The median projected birth date for all fetuses examined was 28 May. Over the
last 7 years, conception timing has changed little (Table 1)
was 0.97 embryos/doe. The median conception date for all does was 11 November.
Eighty-nine percent of all breeding occurred between 16 October and 16 December,
with the median date fawns bred as 30 November, 3 weeks later than adult does.
The median projected birth date for all fetuses examined was 28 May. Over the
last 7 years, conception timing has changed little (Table 1)
#12
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Ft. Dix, New Jersey
Posts: 41

28 May
ORIGINAL: bluebird2
But you apparently overlooked the fact that Dr. R. also said this in nthe same paragraph.
What they found as the result of their studies is that breeding rates and productivity decreased and there was no significant change in the breeding window.
This quote is from the 2007-2008 AWR.
But you apparently overlooked the fact that Dr. R. also said this in nthe same paragraph.
But will any changes be found after the new antler restrictions allow more bucks to reach the 2-year-old age class? To answer this question we will continue collecting conception data from roadkilled does as the deer population is modified by the new antler restrictions.
This quote is from the 2007-2008 AWR.
The average reproductive rate for all females
was 0.97 embryos/doe. The median conception date for all does was 11 November.
Eighty-nine percent of all breeding occurred between 16 October and 16 December,
with the median date fawns bred as 30 November, 3 weeks later than adult does.
The median projected birth date for all fetuses examined was 28 May. Over the
last 7 years, conception timing has changed little (Table 1)
was 0.97 embryos/doe. The median conception date for all does was 11 November.
Eighty-nine percent of all breeding occurred between 16 October and 16 December,
with the median date fawns bred as 30 November, 3 weeks later than adult does.
The median projected birth date for all fetuses examined was 28 May. Over the
last 7 years, conception timing has changed little (Table 1)
I've read all the studies. The 4 year conception study clearly showed that the historical dates of "1 week before Thanksgiving" as being peak/median rut window was incorrect. At that time, it was also shown that the buck to doe ratio was out of whack heavily favoring does. Now the science shows that PA has gavitated from Nov 17th to Nov 11th. Now if my math is correct, 200 days prior to 28 May brings us back to 9 Nov.
Being that bucks tend does for up to 72 hours....that brings us to approx 6-7 Nov. Now keep doing the reverse engineering and you'll see that it is much earlier that what it used to be.
QDM = shorter intense ruts that happen earlier in the season.
#13
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 3,879

I've read all the studies. The 4 year conception study clearly showed that the historical dates of "1 week before Thanksgiving" as being peak/median rut window was incorrect. At that time, it was also shown that the buck to doe ratio was out of whack heavily favoring does. Now the science shows that PA has gavitated from Nov 17th to Nov 11th. Now if my math is correct, 200 days prior to 28 May brings us back to 9 Nov.
In my area ,scrapes and rubs are still few and far between and there is no evidence the rut has started, so I would expect it will peak around the end of next week.
#14
Fork Horn
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Ocean County NJ USA
Posts: 100

It is purescience. Photoperiodism is the main factor controllingwhen a doe comes into estrus, that is why scent manufacturers control the amount of light to make does come in and out of estrus many timesa year to produce scent. The rut is most prevelent when the greatest amount of does come into estrus at the same time. There are many things thateffect the breeding activity we may see, temperature, population, hunting pressure, ratioetc. QDMhas no effect on wether or not deer breed, if there is'nt a dominant buck to push a subordinant out of the way then the subordinant buck will breed the doe. Bucks can breed anytime. Just because a buck is 1 1/2 years old does not mean his genes are inferior its just not obvious to us yet because he is younger and not fully developed he may end up a 160 class 10 pointer some day. I killed3 very large bucks during six day firearm season one in 94, 97, and 02all were chasing does and those years seemed to have very little rut activity earlier in Nov. Last year I saw a 160 class buck chasing does and fighting off smaller bucks during the Tues. ofearly muzzleloader season. If I were to pick when to be in the woods I would say generally say around Nov 10th to the 20th but you never know when the rut gods will smile upon you and put the many pieces of the puzzle together. But I would always go with science.
#16
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Ft. Dix, New Jersey
Posts: 41

ORIGINAL: bigmills20
QDMhas no effect on wether or not deer breed,
QDMhas no effect on wether or not deer breed,
And I NEVER said or implied that.
I said and will say it again, QDM is allowing peak breeding to happen EARLIER in the season. QDM is about natural balance....NOT artificial. So QDM is bringing the deer herd to it's natural state...and thus, the natural state and natural timing of the rut is EARLIER than it was.
Human population growth, progress in crops, hunting, etc, have artifically influenced the timimg of the rut. QDM is bringing the herd back to it's natural state and therefore, the rut is going to shift back to where it should be.
#17
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 3,879

Once again, the data from PA refutes your theory. There is nothing to indicate that the rut is occurring earlier than in the past and there is nothing to indicate that the rut should occur earlier. The goal was to reduce the breeding window , not to have the rut occur earlier.
QDM is no more natural than traditional deer management. Keeping more buck in the herd than is necessary, while harvesting the biggest buck at 3.5-4.5 is not how nature works. QDM just tries to redefine terms to justify managing the herd for bigger bucks.
QDM is no more natural than traditional deer management. Keeping more buck in the herd than is necessary, while harvesting the biggest buck at 3.5-4.5 is not how nature works. QDM just tries to redefine terms to justify managing the herd for bigger bucks.
#18
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Ft. Dix, New Jersey
Posts: 41

ORIGINAL: bluebird2
Once again, the data from PA refutes your theory. There is nothing to indicate that the rut is occurring earlier than in the past and there is nothing to indicate that the rut should occur earlier. The goal was to reduce the breeding window , not to have the rut occur earlier.
QDM is no more natural than traditional deer management. Keeping more buck in the herd than is necessary, while harvesting the biggest buck at 3.5-4.5 is not how nature works. QDM just tries to redefine terms to justify managing the herd for bigger bucks.
Once again, the data from PA refutes your theory. There is nothing to indicate that the rut is occurring earlier than in the past and there is nothing to indicate that the rut should occur earlier. The goal was to reduce the breeding window , not to have the rut occur earlier.
QDM is no more natural than traditional deer management. Keeping more buck in the herd than is necessary, while harvesting the biggest buck at 3.5-4.5 is not how nature works. QDM just tries to redefine terms to justify managing the herd for bigger bucks.
#19
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 3,879

ORIGINAL: E.P. Scott
who told you that QDM is about big buck management? It's about herd health in relation to carrying capacity of the habitat.
ORIGINAL: bluebird2
Once again, the data from PA refutes your theory. There is nothing to indicate that the rut is occurring earlier than in the past and there is nothing to indicate that the rut should occur earlier. The goal was to reduce the breeding window , not to have the rut occur earlier.
QDM is no more natural than traditional deer management. Keeping more buck in the herd than is necessary, while harvesting the biggest buck at 3.5-4.5 is not how nature works. QDM just tries to redefine terms to justify managing the herd for bigger bucks.
Once again, the data from PA refutes your theory. There is nothing to indicate that the rut is occurring earlier than in the past and there is nothing to indicate that the rut should occur earlier. The goal was to reduce the breeding window , not to have the rut occur earlier.
QDM is no more natural than traditional deer management. Keeping more buck in the herd than is necessary, while harvesting the biggest buck at 3.5-4.5 is not how nature works. QDM just tries to redefine terms to justify managing the herd for bigger bucks.
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