More DNR Spindoctoring
03-28-2003, 07:42 PM
#1
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: CWD Central, WI.
Posts: 2,062
More DNR Spindoctoring
Dnr Is Encouraged By Latest Cwd Report Wisconsin State Journal :: LOCAL/WISCONSIN :: B1 Thursday, March 27, 2003 Ron Seely Environment reporter Efforts to control the spread of chronic wasting disease from southwestern Wisconsin may have been more effective than even the state Department of Natural Resources realized, based on deer population figures released Wednesday. Bill VanderZouwen, DNR wildlife ecologist, told members of the Natural Resources Board Wednesday that recent aerial surveys of deer populations within the 411-square-mile eradication zone near Mount Horeb show a higher percentage of the deer in the area may have been killed by hunters over the fall and winter than earlier estimates indicated.
That bodes well, VanderZouwen said, for control of the fatal deer brain disease, which showed up in the wild white-tail deer herd in February 2002.
Earlier estimates, which showed a lower percentage of deer in the zone killed, were based on a faulty estimate of the total population made after helicopter surveys last spring, VanderZouwen said. The new estimates are based on a recent helicopter survey that covered a larger area and showed there were actually fewer deer in the eradication zone to start with.
The population in the eradication zone was estimated, prior to the fall hunt, at between 25,000 and 30,000 deer. But VanderZouwen said that estimate was based on " a very limited aerial survey" conducted in March 2002.
Based on the number of deer killed this fall and winter and the number of deer counted during the new survey, VanderZouwen said the number of deer in the eradication zone prior to the fall hunt in 2002 was probably between 16,400 and 17,900. Hunting has dropped that number to between 7,400 and 11,800 deer, he said. When fawns are born, the number should climb again to between 12,100 and 14,300 animals.
What this all means, VanderZouwen said, is that the extensive hunt over the fall and the winter killed a higher percentage of the deer than was originally believed. The DNR hopes to control the spread of CWD in the state by killing all the deer in the zone over a five-year-period.
The estimates show the state is well on its way to meeting that goal, VanderZouwen said. Even better, he added, is that with about 97.5 percent of all CWD test results in from elsewhere in the state, the disease appears to be limited to the eradication zone and surrounding management area in southwestern Wisconsin.
" I think," VanderZouwen said, " this certainly tells us we have a reasonable chance of bringing the herd down quite far and controlling the disease."
Also on Wednesday, the board learned a panel of national wildlife experts will review the DNR' s strategy to combat CWD. Sarah Shapiro Hurley, deputy administrator of the DNR' s land division, said the review next month should bolster the DNR' s credibility and tell wildlife officials whether the plan is on track.
That bodes well, VanderZouwen said, for control of the fatal deer brain disease, which showed up in the wild white-tail deer herd in February 2002.
Earlier estimates, which showed a lower percentage of deer in the zone killed, were based on a faulty estimate of the total population made after helicopter surveys last spring, VanderZouwen said. The new estimates are based on a recent helicopter survey that covered a larger area and showed there were actually fewer deer in the eradication zone to start with.
The population in the eradication zone was estimated, prior to the fall hunt, at between 25,000 and 30,000 deer. But VanderZouwen said that estimate was based on " a very limited aerial survey" conducted in March 2002.
Based on the number of deer killed this fall and winter and the number of deer counted during the new survey, VanderZouwen said the number of deer in the eradication zone prior to the fall hunt in 2002 was probably between 16,400 and 17,900. Hunting has dropped that number to between 7,400 and 11,800 deer, he said. When fawns are born, the number should climb again to between 12,100 and 14,300 animals.
What this all means, VanderZouwen said, is that the extensive hunt over the fall and the winter killed a higher percentage of the deer than was originally believed. The DNR hopes to control the spread of CWD in the state by killing all the deer in the zone over a five-year-period.
The estimates show the state is well on its way to meeting that goal, VanderZouwen said. Even better, he added, is that with about 97.5 percent of all CWD test results in from elsewhere in the state, the disease appears to be limited to the eradication zone and surrounding management area in southwestern Wisconsin.
" I think," VanderZouwen said, " this certainly tells us we have a reasonable chance of bringing the herd down quite far and controlling the disease."
Also on Wednesday, the board learned a panel of national wildlife experts will review the DNR' s strategy to combat CWD. Sarah Shapiro Hurley, deputy administrator of the DNR' s land division, said the review next month should bolster the DNR' s credibility and tell wildlife officials whether the plan is on track.
03-28-2003, 08:36 PM
#2
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: waukesha wi USA
Posts: 45
RE: More DNR Spindoctoring
Let' s look at this smoke:
The population in the eradication zone was estimated, prior to the fall hunt, at between 25,000 and 30,000 deer. But VanderZouwen said that estimate was based on " a very limited aerial survey" conducted in March 2002.
AREN' T ALL AERIAL SURVEYS LIMITED ???
Based on the number of deer killed this fall and winter and the number of deer counted during the new survey, VanderZouwen said the number of deer in the eradication zone prior to the fall hunt in 2002 was probably between 16,400 and 17,900. Hunting has dropped that number to between 7,400 and 11,800 deer, he said. When fawns are born, the number should climb again to between 12,100 and 14,300 animals.
NOW, If you can place the herd within 1500 deer, how can the numbers vary by 4400 after the hunting when all the deer are tagged and registered ? MORE SMOKE...NOW, if you look at 7400 to 11,800 expanding to 12,100 to 14,300, this gives you the possibility of a 20%- 60% expansion factor. It doesn' t take a wizard to guess that close. According to their numbers, the average expansion factor over the last decade, is about 70%....Hmmmmmmmm
What this all means, VanderZouwen said, is that the extensive hunt over the fall and the winter killed a higher percentage of the deer than was originally believed. The DNR hopes to control the spread of CWD in the state by killing all the deer in the zone over a five-year-period.
NO kidding - they drop the prehunt numbers by 45% - now the lame harvest is a larger percentage.
There were more deer killed psm (70a) in 1995 with a regular season than in 2002-03 with all the free tags, etc.... this is a broken record and they want to make it permanent. Contact your legislators and tell them NO to WM-05-03. It' s time to take back our hunting.
The population in the eradication zone was estimated, prior to the fall hunt, at between 25,000 and 30,000 deer. But VanderZouwen said that estimate was based on " a very limited aerial survey" conducted in March 2002.
AREN' T ALL AERIAL SURVEYS LIMITED ???
Based on the number of deer killed this fall and winter and the number of deer counted during the new survey, VanderZouwen said the number of deer in the eradication zone prior to the fall hunt in 2002 was probably between 16,400 and 17,900. Hunting has dropped that number to between 7,400 and 11,800 deer, he said. When fawns are born, the number should climb again to between 12,100 and 14,300 animals.
NOW, If you can place the herd within 1500 deer, how can the numbers vary by 4400 after the hunting when all the deer are tagged and registered ? MORE SMOKE...NOW, if you look at 7400 to 11,800 expanding to 12,100 to 14,300, this gives you the possibility of a 20%- 60% expansion factor. It doesn' t take a wizard to guess that close. According to their numbers, the average expansion factor over the last decade, is about 70%....Hmmmmmmmm
What this all means, VanderZouwen said, is that the extensive hunt over the fall and the winter killed a higher percentage of the deer than was originally believed. The DNR hopes to control the spread of CWD in the state by killing all the deer in the zone over a five-year-period.
NO kidding - they drop the prehunt numbers by 45% - now the lame harvest is a larger percentage.
There were more deer killed psm (70a) in 1995 with a regular season than in 2002-03 with all the free tags, etc.... this is a broken record and they want to make it permanent. Contact your legislators and tell them NO to WM-05-03. It' s time to take back our hunting.
03-29-2003, 09:11 AM
#3
Fork Horn
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Sussex WI
Posts: 381
RE: More DNR Spindoctoring
Great analysis, WDHC. The DNR has been pulling this crap with regard to manipulating numbers all along. Sort of proves the old saying: " Statistics don' t lie, but liars can use statistics."
Going back to a recent issue of Wisconsin Outdoor News, with regard to why we supposedly " need" T-zones this year:
So the DNR' s magical SAK formula, which they have defended vigorously over the past several years, tells them that they have fewer deer. Of course, that makes them look like fools over the last several years, so they simply say, " Oh, there have to be more deer than that" .
Oh, did you know that the DNR is also expert when it comes to reading hunters' minds?
Gosh, must have missed that statistical study showing how hunters were more selective. Oh that' s right! They didn' t have one....
BTW, if the DNR is now saying how successful they have been in the CWD zone, then why the need to allow shartshooters over bait piles?
Going back to a recent issue of Wisconsin Outdoor News, with regard to why we supposedly " need" T-zones this year:
The DNR has apparently concluded that the main reason the harvest was down in most areas was because of a lack of hunters.
" We think the deer are still there, so we' ve adjusted our buck recovery rate to reflect that," Nagus said. " That' s why we' ll end up with population numbers that have us looking at Zone T seasons in a lot of units."
Brockman-Mederas says poor hunting conditions played a key role in last Fall' s reduced deer harvest, primarily during the archery season.
" We had windy weather and a wet early fall, which limited bow hunting success," she said. " During the gun season there wasn' t much snow. We didin' t have baiting, which also impacted the antlerless harvest by bowhunters."
" We think the deer are still there, so we' ve adjusted our buck recovery rate to reflect that," Nagus said. " That' s why we' ll end up with population numbers that have us looking at Zone T seasons in a lot of units."
Brockman-Mederas says poor hunting conditions played a key role in last Fall' s reduced deer harvest, primarily during the archery season.
" We had windy weather and a wet early fall, which limited bow hunting success," she said. " During the gun season there wasn' t much snow. We didin' t have baiting, which also impacted the antlerless harvest by bowhunters."
Oh, did you know that the DNR is also expert when it comes to reading hunters' minds?
She also cited a later opening date for the general firearm season and hesitation about eating venison by some hunters as reasons for the lower harvest.
" There was more selectivity among hunters last fall," she said. " Many preferred to wait for a shot at a trophy buck rather than just take a deer for meat. Due to all of these factors, we didn' t have the kill we wanted. This fall, we' ll have a lot more deer, especially with the lack of snow we had this winter."
" There was more selectivity among hunters last fall," she said. " Many preferred to wait for a shot at a trophy buck rather than just take a deer for meat. Due to all of these factors, we didn' t have the kill we wanted. This fall, we' ll have a lot more deer, especially with the lack of snow we had this winter."
BTW, if the DNR is now saying how successful they have been in the CWD zone, then why the need to allow shartshooters over bait piles?
