Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

First off let me say the first time I saw Alsheimer's rut predicitions 4 years ago in Deer & Deer Hunting I was like yeah right. Well I must admit that for the last 4 seasons he has been dead on the money in my area.

So on to the Rut predicitons for 2004. He predicts a very early rut due to the 2nd harvest moon occuring on October 28th. Here is his predicitons according to the 2004 Whitetail Calendar:

Seeking Phase: October 25th- October 31st

Chasing Phase: November 1st- November 8th

Breeding Phase: November 9th- November 16th

This is the earliest that I have ever seen him predict for the rut to start and end. So I guess we will have to wait until next season to see how his predicitons play out. This really though makes me wonder when would be the best time for me to take my vacation next year??

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Just curious what did he say for this year???

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Toby.... he was dead on the money this year.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Is that the one that said the 2nd Estrus is supposed to start December 15th?

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

I can't even tell you when the rut was in my area. Poorest rut I ever saw. If I remember correctly, he predicted a strong rut. So I guess you can say that in some regions, Alsheimer's predictions for this year missed the mark quite a bit.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

If they are correct, Pa archery season should be gold. Can't wait. Taking a semester off from school so I can't hunt EVERY day.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Is there a link to his site? From what I saw, this year was a pretty good rut and I want to see if his dates agree with mine.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

What does he use to get his predictions? Moon phases? This might be stupid, but... is this moon phases as in astrology? Or moon phases as in the same way it effects ocean/wind?

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Alsheimer's predictions are based upon the moon phases. His theory in short is that the does pineal gland cues off of the rutting moon (the second full moon after the autimnal equinox. At some point in autumn, the amount of sunlight decreases enough to reset the whitetail's reproductive clock, thus placing the breeding season in November, December and January in the Northern Hemisphere. When a doe's reproductive cycle is reset, her estrous cycle is ready to be cued by moonlight, which provides a bright light stimulus to the pineal gland several nights in a row each lunar month. Then, the rapid decrease in the lunar brightness during the moon's third quarter triggers hormonal production by the pineal gland. Physiological changes prompted by the pinel gland culminate in ovulation and estrus.

I know it sounds crazy but I swear this guy has been dead on in his predicitons in my area for the last 4 seasons. So who knows but if he is correct we should see an early rut next season!!

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Actually, in my area, he has missed the mark for two years, and I've only looked at his date for two years. Last year, he predicted peak rut to be in early to mid December, with little to no rutting activity in November. Yet in our area, the usual time period of Halloween to November 15 was good. According to Charles, it should have been dead. Also, I didn't see, and I don't know anyone who saw, sustained rutting activity in the first two weeks of December last year.

As for this year, He predicted bucks would be resting from the Halloween period through the first week of November, yet our guys in Ohio had the best rutting activity of the year at that time. In NJ, guys were reporting good rutting activity as well. I planned my vacation time around his prediction and missed it big time. For me, it was the worst rut I've seen in a long, long time. I think I just missed it. The best plan is to hunt whenever you can, and pay attention to what is going on in the woods, not what some moon table predicts.

There are many factors that affect the timing of the rut, but I don't really think his moon tables are very reliable, at least they have not been accurate where I, and many others I know hunt.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

I just receive my 2004 calender from Deer & Deer Hunting Magazine. It has his predictions all layed out day by day and a whole lot of good info not to mention some great looking pics for each month. Cost $11.95.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

What if its cloudy for those few days??

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Good point rack. Also, I have been convinced that the rut is controlled solely by moon phases and the amount of light reaching the does eyes etc. However, this year made me step back and re-think the whole thing. We did have some rutting activity back during the first part of Nov., which is normal here. However, the rutting activity was sparse and the weather was unusually warm. I always figured if the does are in heat the bucks are going to be up breeding and chasing, regardless of how warm it is. Well, this past week (roughly 28 days after the first rutting activity) we saw more bucks chasing does and breeding does that we have at any other time. All the does that were not bred are coming back in heat and now that it's cooler the buck are getting up and chasing them. We normally start seeing chasing around Oct. 31 and around Nov. 7-10 it's going full swing. However, this year I saw the weather push that peek back at least 3 weeks to Dec. 1-5. The only way I know to explain that is the weather played a big role in when the rut took place.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

I guess everyone is entitled to thier own opinion, right? Well, last year was supposed to be the crappy year relative to rut activity, etc. I'll take that bad activity in a heart beat....I took my best bow kill buck to date, a nice 10 point with some character to the rack. And saw a few other good ones. This year was "supposed" to be the hot rut year...I let a seven, a few sixes and some fours/spikes go. I saw one really good shooter, but he never posed a clean shot. But all in all, the two buddies that hunt with me from my camp said the same thing. Bad year for the rut and last year was good. Bottom line....the rut will take place between 11/7 and 11/15 in my area (far northern WI) although some years may be more intense, but I gotta tell ya, the idea of predicting the rut a year in advance is a far stretch. If you read enough hunting magazines, you will eventually find an article that will come true, because sooner or later, as you turn the page, you will see one article contradict another. That's why I don't subscribe to any of them....come fall I may pick one or two up, to look at the pictures. :-) :-)

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

So are you saying that perhaps the secondary rut may have been greater or equal to the primary rut? Interesting, I wish I could have been out hunting the past week to observe. I do know that the rut activity in November here in Western NY was almost non-existant. IMO.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Guys,

I listen to a 65-70 year old deer hunter to find out the rut and he usually is within 1 day of the rut.

This year he predicted (for our area, NC) the rut in full effect will be 7 days after the full moon of Nov.

The "second" rut will be 7 days after the full moon of Dec. Will lands on Dec. 15 the same as Alsheimer's prediction.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

By the way, I asked him about next years rut he said,
"Boy, you ain't finished this year and I don't see no heads on your wall, so what are you worried about anyway? I'll let you know when it's over."

Old bast... I mean old fart!:D

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

In all my years of hunting I can say I have never really seen a second rut try as I might.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

I'll make a few points here even though they are just opinions based on Alsheimers predictions.

1. If you don't buy into the moon phase predictions then please by all means do NOT go into the woods next year between 10/23/03 and 10/31/03. Just wait until the first two week of November like always. Hunting pressure is a rut supprecessor and it will hurt my chances if you are out there when you know you should be waiting until November when the rut really starts! :-)

2. The 2nd rut????? The few people who have the rare occasion to witness this got lucky! It's all a #'s game. If 80% of the doe in an area got bred during the 1st rut and then 20% do in the 2nd rut that is quite a difference. An example: say there is 50 deer using your property. Say 40 of them are doe. If 20% get bred during the 2nd rut that means 8 doe come into heat. That's not going to create a lot of frantic rut action if you ask me.

I have already scheduled vacation time from 10/25/04 - 11/5/04.

TBO

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Interesting predictions. I have not followed his predictions in past years so I have nothing to base my judgement on. However, you can be sure I will monitor the rut this upcoming season to see how it pans out according to his time table.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Here ya go buckeye

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Thanks again Belle. You know, I don't get lost in the woods, but this place gets me turned around and going the wrong way all the time?????

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Buckeye,

I am going to be in the woods regardless of whom predicts what. I don't decide to hunt because of the moon phase, or because it's warmer than I like, or because it's windier than I like, or because of someone elses predictions. I hunt when I get the chance and I let the deer take care of the rest. The two things that I have figured out about hunting are:

1. I can't predict when deer are going to move. Sometimes they lay up on "perfect" days and move like crazy on days that you wouldn't expect them to.

2. You can't kill deer on the couch.

My point is even if I thought Alsheimers was a flake (which I have no idea) I would be hunting either way.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Charles Alsheimer has written some excellent articles
in regards to rutting activity. I have read his predictions
the past few years and must admit, I now pay much
closer atttention to the moon's phases. That being
said, most of us base our opinion on the type of
rut going on by the amount of activity that's
gone on while we're on stand. Some of my
best years have occured during so called "poor
rut years", I just happened to be in the right place
at the right time - not on the couch;). This year
was supposed to be great for rutting activity -
for me, it was the slowest rut in the last 5 years.
However, if you talked to my 2 bowhunting partners
they would tell you it was the best in the last
5 years. Though we were often less than a few
hundred yards apart, our seasons were as opposite
as you can get...that's hunting[&:]. That's also why
I'm gathering my cold weather gear in preparation
for the late bow season Dec. 22.

After all that, I guess I could have just said predictions
are a nice conversation piece, and possibly, something
to look forward to, but they are certainly not a
guarantee.

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

Silentassasin and Two Beards you both make good points. My buddy and I hunt the same spots on public land and up until November 1 I had seen 7 young bucks and a couple doe. During the same time period he didn't see a single deer. I was able to get out about twice as often as he was so that probably had more to do with it then any predictions. Obviously predictions don't gurantee deer movement. However, if there is a small chance that the time table for the prediction will increase my odds of seeing deer, then for me it is worth knowing. Also, if you read his articles he does explain that the rut and all that is involved is very complicated and there are several factors that affect deer activity. All things being equal, it can't hurt to put a little more emphasis on the predicted timeframe. OBTW his research spans nearly 14 years and involves close to 200 other hunters.

TBO

RE: Check Out Alsheimer's Rut Predictions For Next Season!!
 

I will be in the woods of WVa on all of those dates!!!!!!!!!!!!