Rut predictions?
 

Has anyone heard rut predictions for the mid-Atlantic mountains region (especially Virginia and West Virginia)?

In most past years, I would just spend as much time in the woods hunting as I could. But this year I'm going to have to be stingy with my time in the woods. I have a daughter who will be 2 in December, I'm self-employed and my wife works (more than) full time, and travels some, too. On top of it all, where I hunt is two+ hours drive from my house (worth the drive; it's a great place to hunt).

I live and hunt in MD and everything I have read or heard is thats it is going to be drastically different from last year. I killed 2 big bucks the 1st week of Nov last year and as far as Im concerned it was one of the most pronounced ruts I can ever remember. I had more deer responding to calls and seen more shooters on their feet than any year in recent history for me. This year is suppose to be quite a bit less pronounced and more of the, well for lack of a better word "trickle" rut. All predictions indicate that most active time is suppose to be from about the 12th to 19th which seems a little late from my experiences on my own hunting grounds. Ive read all of Alsheimers books and several off the shelf magazines this year and they all say the same thing as far as a later in the month rut. I dont how much stock you put into that type of stuff but I believe in it somewhat. I say somewhat because I also believe weather is the biggest factor of them all and hunting pressure is a close 2nd. I personally didnt change my yearly vacation dates due to the predictions and I will be in the woods fron Nov 2 to Nov 13th. Guess its all in your own personal judgement but just letting you know everything I have seen and read for this year. Good luck and I hope you pick the right timing for your area.

Thanks, Thunderchicken. I appreciate the insight.

2013 rut report. was just looking at it.

http://www.fieldandstream.com/rut-report

I find it difficult to predict the best time as one day is red hot and the next is not as intense. A string of days where there is the most potential imo is the second week of November. If the predictors are saying it's a trickle this year then after the second week of November it will be hot one day and so the next due to the seeking and chasing phase be completed for the most part (speaking of MD/VA areas here).

As previously mentioned, weather is the biggest factor. I've taken vacation in November to only find myself in a treestand with 75 degrees temperatures at 9:00 AM.

For that matter, I think October is best all around as mature does come into heat first and the seeking and chasing phases are just kicking in.

But it seems in terms of a large number of does coming into heat at the same time that the second week of November would be the time-frame for that to occur.

One other variable to consider is the ratio of bucks to does in a particular area. The more males around; the more intense the rutting activity. If there are too many does, then bucks don't have travel very far to satisfy their urges.

Thanks for the link, Leo. I had actually found that page, but it just shows current and historical conditions, not predictions. But I definitely bookmarked it so I can track as the season progresses, and that will be helpful. Right now, I am trying to plan for time off of work and childcare.

Chazspot. Thanks for sharing your insight. I agree that the ratios and weather are big factors that affect the intensity of the rut and can move the timing significantly. I would say the ratio where I hunt is fairly "normal", as there is a little hunting pressure, but not a lot, and there is a lot of space for deer bedding and relatively "safe" areas for them. Unfortunately, the weather will be whatever it will be when it will be, and so won't help me plan ahead of time, but I will definitely keep an eye on it as it comes.