Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Hide the women and children, brace yourselves and open your minds, because The Undisputed King of Archery is about to take you down a road that you haven't been down since . . . well . . . June.


Awesome Picture



I just wanted to revisit this discussion on the heels of the hunting season - just to get another take on the topic.


Stage 1: Identifying a target.

Disclaimer: I totally just made up the numbershere, but they soundclose enoughto being reasonable - so I ran with it. You can edit/change everything to fit your own situation.

Identify and Outlineyour age structure. (we'll keep it simple for the purposes of this demonstration).
[ul][*]You start off witha 1.5 year old buck.[*]For every 3 1.5 year olds, there's a 2.5 year old buck.[*]For every 3 2.5's, there's a 3.5.[*]For every 3 3.5's, there's a 4.5.[*]For every 3 4.5's, there's a 5.5.[*]And so on...[/ul]
So, by that math:
[ul][*]For every 2.5, there's 3 1.5's.[*]For every 3.5, there's 3 2.5's and9 1.5's.[*]For every 4.5, there's 3 3.5's, 9 2.5's, and 27 1.5's.[*]For every 5.5, there's 3 4.5's, 9 3.5's, 27 2.5's and 81 1.5's. (TRANSLATION:ONE 5.5 year old buck per 121 bucks) [*]If you have a 2:1 buck-to-doe ratio, that's ONE 5.5 year old buck in every 363 deer. [/ul]


The Population Pyramid unlocks the secrets of the Schwartz.


The Moral Of The Story:If your deer density is 20 deer per square mile, that means that there's one 5.5 year old buck per every 18 square miles of territory.
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STAGE 2: Getting the deer in range.

Let's just say, for the sake of argument that my township isabout 35square miles (that's about average). By my math above - there should be approximately two 5.5 year old bucks in my township. 35 square miles is 22,400 acres of land mass. Do you have any idea how hard it is to see, locate, and dial-in on that particular deer? It's a magnanimous commitment of time and effort, topped off by some VERY long odds.

Mathematically, if your range is 30 yards...
KILL ZONE= 3.14 x 90 ft (squared)
KILL ZONE= 25,434 square feet

So, if you're hunting a 22,400 acre area....
1 Acre = 43,560 square feet

So, if an average Township is 22,400 acres....
43,560 x 22,400 ACRES = 975,744,000 SQUARE FEET


That means that, at any given time, your odds of having either ofthetwo 5.5 year oldbucks in the township WITHIN 30 yards is:
25,434 / 975,744,000 = .000026(x2)

Your odds of having either ofthetwo 5.5 year oldbucks in the township WITHIN 30 yards is: .005% (that sucks)
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Stage 3: Go for the Gusto.

Now, let's pretend that you'rehunting the biggest buck in the COUNTY. If an average county is 1000 square miles, and there are 27,878,000 square feet in a square mile...

Your chances of having the biggest buck in the county within range at any given momentare:

25,434 / 27,878,000,000 = .0000000912.

That's .00000912%. Pretty good odds, eh?



Step 4. Assessing Your Odds.

In 3 years,my logs show that I've seen97bucks from the stand (with about a 2:1 Doe-to-Buck ratio. Of those bucks,77 1.5's, 17 2.5's, and 3 3.5's (by my best guess).

So, MYage brackets - accordingto my logs are:
[ul][*]4.5 yearling bucks per 2.5[*]5.7 2.5's per 3.5[*](extrapolating) 5.7 3.5's per 4.5[*](extrapolating again) 5.7 4.5's per 5.5.[/ul]
So, in MY area (based upon3 years ofrecords)-
[ul][*]For every 2.5, there's 4.5 yearlings.[*]For every 3.5, there's 5.7 2.5's and 25.65 yearling bucks.[*]For every 4.5, there's 5.7 3.5's, 32 2.5's, and 115 yearlings.[*]For every 5.5, there's 5.7 4.5's, 32 3.5's, 182 2.5's, and 517 yearlings.[/ul]

So, while you WANT your population pyramid to look like this:

Good



Mine looks like this:

crappy

Which sucks.


So, what the hell does all this mean?

If my numerical interpretations are right: That means that I'll have one 5.5 year old buck for every 737 Antlered Deer. If I have a 2:1 B-D ratio, that's 1 5.5 year-old buck in every 2211 whitetail deer.

1 5.5 year old buck per 2211 deer.

If you presume 20 DPSM, that's 1 5.5 buck in every 110 square miles. If your average township/boro is 35 square miles - that means there's ONE 5.5 per every 3 townships. Ballpark.


So what's realistic for YOU?

If I see a deer, here are my percentages:
[ul][*].05% that it will be a 5.5 year old buck[*].26% that it will be a 4.5 year old buck[*]1.4% that it will be a 3.5 year old buck[*]8.2% that it will be a 2.5 year old buck[*]23.4% that it will be a yearling buck[*]67% that it will be a doe. [/ul]
On average, I see about 100 deer per year from the stand in archery season.So what? Well, this istelling me that I willlikely see 1.71 3.5 year old+ deer per year. No guarantee that they're in-range. Just a visual. That's one chance, maybe two, on a deer that's most-likely going to be 3.5 years old.

These averages are spot-on, as they relate to my real-world results.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Well thanks im glad you took the time to EXPLAIN the basics of killing MATURE deer (bucks)..Its much appriciated.Now i fully understand:D

One question for you though...are these the stats that help you win the Bowhunting contest year after year????

You should hav never revealed your secrets.;)

BH818

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

:D...No, but seriously? Really believe this?[&:]

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

I failed algebra twice.

[>:]

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

I'm in the freshman math class this year[>:]

I've been waiting to post this, though. Yes, that is a crown.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

[/ul]

So you're SAYIN there's a chance![&:]

I see less than one 3.5yr old/season. I saw ZERO 2.5's last year, and ZERO 3.5's. If I looked a tthe odds....I probably wouldn't hunt.:D

Kyle....Is "Blazin'" anything like "flaming"?

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

As far as I'm concerned, trophy buck hunting is nothing more than a numbers game.

Deer sighting averages. Activity spikes. Temperatures. Barometric pressures. Hours. Shooter encounters. Stand averages. Wind directions.

Seriously, an idiot can scout deer. It's not rocket science: Geographics, Food sources, Bedding areas, Thermals, Prevailing winds, Pressure points, Rub concentrations, Scrape lines, etc.

I'm 100 percent convinced that if you pay enough attention to your own numbers... If your records are solid enough... You will start to see patterns that will make it easy to lay the perfect trap. After that, it's a numbers game, and the chips will fall where they may.

These are transferrable skills that apply to any hunting area. Inventory the deer you see,project out the herd structure, forecast your hunting time, set a few perfect traps and roll the dice.


Kyle - You can't wear a crown over a hat. Major faux pas.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Love you Fran.. but had to give a shout out to the word lucid.

It's not used enough these days.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Thanks for bumming me out Quik. I was just about to go hunting again. With gas prices going down at least it will be cheaper covering the 100+ sq. miles in search of mr. big.

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RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

edit.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

One of my favorite posts.......:D
I don't know why but it definitely makes me chuckle.

Scientifically it's a TOUCH off here and there because it assumes you can actually hunt every inch of the target areas you describe and that deer can or will even populate them.......which does exactly "I have know idea" to the results.:DBut I thought I'd throw it out there.

In any event.....if you took MY PA season (Hell, LIFETIME :eek:) numbers and entered them into the King's equation for the "Theory of Mature Buck Relativity" I'd probably swallow a gun barrel or take up lawn darts after seeing the resulting odds if I honestly expected to kill such a deer here.

If I look back at the 08' season , even in Illinois, thosenumbers and that breakdownprobably isn't far off. LOL

(But I'm still voting Gay just to stay consistent;))

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

I wanted to pick option 5 since misery loves company and I'm a bit demented myself (ohsnaptosis, my bad you said tormented, nevermind me) butI went with option 4 honestly because I liked the presentation. I wouldn't call it a revelation but the logical deduction is noteworthy.

I don't think there's onlyone 5.5 in every square 110 tho. Thasalota land and there's probably a few more that are just that elusive to never be counted.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

i love it!! awesome work! and it all makes sense and the numbers seem good to me...


i have very few deer...and very few decent hunting spots so those figures make me the greatest hunter in the world....

i see roughly 20..yes TWENTY deer per bow season.

the past 3 years, 5-8 have been visibly antlered bucks each year..usually only 4-6 deer i believe to be does...usually a couple IDed as BBs...and a couple unidentified deer, which i almost always believe would be a buck if it showed its head...

all except 2 of the bucks that i can think of off the top of my head has been within 30yds.

im good for roughly 5-7 1.5yos 1-2 2.5yos and 0-1 3.5+yos

most of my deer are within range...which is good...i just suck with the numbers...the past 3 years have all been right around 20 deer per bow season....but, when i go spotting or beating brush or walking in snow, i feel good about my numbers...exspecially my buck numbers. work for this late winter/early spring is gaining access to better land and scout it out and ensure i can hunt there in the fall. thats my goal. even if its 1 GOOD property...id be happy. id like a couple GOOD properties secured being that i might beable to hunt EVERY day of the season and wanna go decently big or go home if thats the case...i just need the property with the deer to go big or go home....i wanna get beat by DEER..not get beat by lack of deer...not complaing...just reality...in the half a township i hunt, we know of maybe 4 bucks older than 2.5yo. between hunters, farmers, people driving, spotters etc, we have a REAL good idea of whats out there...we have a REAL lack of 2.5yo bucks this year...a real lack of LEGAL bucks...and number of 1.5yo bucks aint THAT great...theres a bunch of them runnin around and it seems more deer have bone than dont...but numbers are way down...

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

I dunno... Even if my numbers are off... Even if you substitute them for something a little more palatable...

It's still a damn daunting task to walk into a 5.5 year old buck. Anywhere.

No matter whether it's 1-in-500 or 1-in-5000, the sheer dynamics of the herd pyramid clearly show that you've gotta go through a hell of a lot of deer to get to the patriarch.

Putting your hands around thatrack require a hunter to be eitherreally lucky or really good. Or both.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

The numbers do not match what I hunt. During a two day gun hunt on the public land thatI hunt, there were 250 hunters on 15'000 acres. 26buck's were killed, buck'smust have a 15" spread. Out of the 26 taken,therewere (6) 2 1/2, (11) 31/2, (6) 4 1/2, (3) 5 1/2+. Out of the 26 buck's, 20 would have made P&Y and 1 will make B&C( the booner was 3 1/2).It's all bigwoods andthis area also holds about 12 deerper squaremile, so there's not a deerbehind every tree and no large number of1 1/2 year old buck's.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

15'' AR is a great thing IMO

Fran I am researching that dude who is prego, I want to have your children:D

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

What are ya gonna do in a few years!?!??!

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Lots of booner's this year only 3 1/2...whatever...

Love the post Quik...you need to get on with a magazine and do this kind of stuff for the back page articles.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Dam i now feel that i have over came some overwelming Odds this season even though i have not loosed an arrow at a buck. close but no cigar
Yout maxed out bud!!! :D

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Wow, the numbers might be alittle off, but i think the way you put it paints a very clear picture, in a way, im kind of depressed right now.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Makes me feel A LOT better about not tagging a 5.5 year old buck.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

I'm screwed.:(

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

Yup that pretty much sums up the chances in PA unless you are one of the select few with some pristine untouched ground bordering unhuntable ground.

And then only maybe...

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

The numbers have heldthe same forthe last 8 years. With the 15" AR, the 1 1/2's get a free pass, a large number of the 2 1/2's (border line) get a pass. The bulk of thebuck's taken are 3 1/2, the limited 2 day gun hunt, 15" ARand ageclass of the buck's allowsa small % to slipthrough the cracks and become mature. There is a full time whitetail bioligist on the property, which I have became good friends with, he said "At the start of the gun hunt, any given year, there are about 90 antlered buck's and 270 antlerless deeron the park" (15,000 acres).

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

I have no idea what all that Jargon you typed comes out too, but i can pick a few things out of it that i know for sure. I have had 91 deer sightings this year from stand, and onlyone was a 3.5 year old buck. Thats pretty consistent with your findings. If i go back to last year, i had in the ball park of 70-80 deer sightings (might need to check my numbers), and once again, only2 were mature bucks (or a HELL of a 2.5 year old), and i saw them both at a distance. Thats pretty close to the % you threw out there.

Good stuff Fran, but my gaydar redlined for a second there....

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

You should have seen the 2 1/2 year old 10 point thattaped out at 147.[:-]

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

I have seen 14 bucks this year. 9-1.5 year olds, 3-2.5 year olds, and 2-3.5/4.5 year olds.

The place I hunt is around 60,000 acres and they estimate the deer herd to be around 4,000-5,000 deer, which means 1 deer for every 12-15 acres. And on many areas of the base I hunt, the number is alot lower because some areas of the base are super-concentrated with deer while others are very sparse, putting the actual deer ratio to around 1 deer for every 30-40 acres.

Oh yeah, they usually keep track of the mature bucks killed on base by way of pictures posted on the game check. I would say less than 10 mature bucks have been arrowed on base this year, meaning 1 mature buck has been arrowed for approximately every 5,000 acres.

RE: Hunt by numbers - revisited...
 

The deer herd where I hunt must be really messed up.:D In 14 sits this fall I saw 13 does and 7 antlered bucks. The bucks were: two 1.5s, and four that were 3.5 or older. I didnt determine the seventh one. So...20% of the deer here are bucks ages 3.5+ and there are no 2.5s around at all [8D]