npaden

I didn't apply this year. I applied last year and got drawn on the first try. I emailed the state and the odds for 2005 and 2006 were right at 60% for the deer/elk combo tag. I also got drawn on my Antelope on my first try last year.

I got drawn in Wyoming already this year for Elk so I figured I would skip Montana this time.

cakreiner

Like I said I called the licensing dept. several times to get clarification on just that subject. They do not put your name in the hat you get a number.

If applying as an individual you get one number. So 5 individuals = 5 Numbers.

If you apply as a party you get one number. So party of 5 = 1 Number.

remington84

So to answer you're question? You said you applied for a combination tag, but did you mean a deer/elk combination tag or a general deer tag is also called a combination tag because you get a handful of other licenses with it like fishing, small game.....etc... I have applied to Montana for quite awhile. I applied in 03 and drew on the first try with my dad. This is now my 4th year applying with my dad and cousin..so going into this year we had a total of nine points for three guys. We should have drawn last year, but three years isnt a gaurantee but my family has been going out there for 20 years and three seems to be the magic number. Your first year chance of drawing a deer tag is around 12 percent and by the third year you are up over 50 percent. With the elk/deer combo licenses your first year succes rate is about 53 percent. I hope to draw a tag this year, I'm pretty much banking on it.

dayna0306

I think it was 1991 the first hunt in montana and I'm looking at the 10th now.It sure was eazier to get tags then,everybody who filled out the app. right was going next fall.I always get the elk deer compo. Now when youapply as a party and bounse points the party can not change to use the points in the future.At lest I think I read that .

Nemont

The drawing stats are very misleading due to how the State reports them. First year first time (ie. no points)draw success on Elk/Deer combo tags is right at 12%. The state will tell you that the success rate is close to 60% but that is for the entire pool of applicants not just the zero points guys. The success rate is even worse for Deer Combo's.

Antelope odds very by region and district, in some districts NR have at better chance of getting drawn then residents do. Ie there are far fewer NR apps for the available 10% of tags vs resident applicant apps for the 90% of tags.

Since the state is going away from the guaranteed archery antelope tags there is no such thing as a guaranteed antelope tag anymore. You put your app. in and you take your chances. At 700 tag is your most likely option to draw a tag fairly frequently.

If you have to hunt Montana every year there are the Guaranteed Outfitter Set Aside license but the State of Montana is pretty proud of them and you have to hunt with a Licensed outfitter.

Nemont

Buckshot

Ugh, I drew last year being my first time, so that means Im about chit out of luck. Sorry Hillbilly.

npaden

Sorry Nemont but I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Sure the true odds may be under the 60% that the state reports but it doesn't math out to anywhere close to 12%. It could be closer to the 53% that remington84 mentioned but I doubt if the odds are much under that.

In 2005, 16,121 people applied for 10,482 available Big Game Combo Licenses (Deer/Elk Combo - This is different from the 11,500 listed because some people apply for an elk only license - I'm not sure how those work into the statistics).

That means that if every one of them bought a preference point then there would be 5,639 folks with a preference point going into the next year.

In 2006 17,731 people applied for 10,519 available Big Game Combo Licenses. Let's assume that every single person that appliedin 2005had a preference point and then applied again in 2006. That would be 5,639 of the 17,731 so 12,092 would have no preference points and 5,639 would have twice the chance of being drawn. So the newcomers would have 12,092 out of 23,370 chances or 51.7%.

Of course every single person isn't buying a preference point and every single unsuccessful applicant isn't applying the next year, but there are some folks that would miss out getting drawn 2 years in a row and would go into the 3rd year with 3 chances of getting drawn and I would say they would about make up for the difference. Statistically if you are buying preference points and aren't drawnin the first 3 years you are VERY unlucky, I figure it over a 95% success ratein 3 years if you are buying the preference points.

I would say about a 50% chance of getting drawn is pretty reasonable. 12% might be right for the Deer license because there are considerably more unsuccessful applicants for the deer license each year and fewer tags to begin with.

My 2 cents. Nathan

hillbillyhunter1

I like that arithemetic much better npaden

I'm sure it will all work out somehow

Nemont

npaden,
Now I will have to go back and look. I had the break down of all the drawing somewhere and 12% has always stuck in my head. Maybe I am confused, which isn't unusual.

Nemont

LUVtoHNT

Just found out this morning that our party of 4 got drawn for the Elk/Deer combo tags with no preference points. We have a ranch in the southeast part of the state lined up for the mule deer hunt. My buddy that organized the party had hunted there three years ago and says that getting a mule deer should not be that difficult but holding out for something special might be a long shot. My questionis if we are lucky enough to tag out on deer in the first two days we will try to find some elk(we will have rental vehicles and one guy is driving out so we can relocate). Not having a clue about elk distribution from Broadus MTcan anyone give me just a general idea of where we should look for public access land that holds some elk or even private land that may charge a daily walk on fee. Thanks for your help.