I'm not quote on quote a "turkey biologist", but I do know a thing or two about reproductive physiology and behavior.

Some recent reports have indicated that the levels of thyroid hormones correlate with the male response to increased sunlight. The thyroid gland is an epicenter for circadian rhythms, body temp, etcetera---meaning the reports were not all that surprising. Hence, the amount of sunlight triggers an increase in T4/T3 (the primary thyroid hormones), and the male avian "urge" to procreate increases accordingly. However, unseasonably warmer temperatures increase metabolism (and of course colder=hinders), so when the country sees a warm snap in February, it can increase a bird's or small mammals metabolism (much more suspect to temperature changes because of body mass). This increase in metabolic breakdown, can in essence, actually enhance or diminish the action of certain hormones. SO...early spells of warm weather will not increase the amounts of T3/T4, but may allow (in theory) the birds to "process" the hormones more efficiently, which triggers an earlier breeding...

With that said, climatic changes, such as El Nino, should have no or little effect on non-migratory birds. These species are much more regulated by changes in day length and chronic weather patterns (ie, 2 weeks of rain) which may alter their breeding activity via changes in land use, vocalizations, and population density. Migratory birds are completely different, and multiple studies have shown an adverse affect to their reproduction and seasonal migration, due to winds/storms/magneto-navigation within their systems.

The birds have been gobbling in CT for a few weeks---I've heard unofficial "reports" from at least 3 people in distinctly different areas.

S&R