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Old 10-22-2020, 04:40 AM
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hubby11
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Clifton, VA
Posts: 814
Default Final Prediction before Nov 3

I previously made a prediction that Biden would win the presidential election with 319 electoral votes to Trumpís 229 electoral votes. Iím gonna update that just a little bit. I now think Biden is going to win with 305 EVs to Trumpís 244.

I'm putting this out there for a couple of reasons. One, I see so many posts talking about the size of Trumpís rallies or car parades or boat parades or TV ratings or the number of signs in a neighborhood as if they are valid predictors of election results. They are not. Two, the tenor of this site in recent weeks genuinely worries me. Too many are talking about post-election violence with what almost appears to be hopefulness. I donít think this is helpful to our process. And no one on the right is calling for calm.

My prediction is based on, you guessed it, polls. I follow several sites that aggregate the most respected polls and provide some predictions. They are, electoralvote.com, fivethirtyeight.com, www.270towin.com, and electionprojection.com.

Yeah, I know, quite a few here discount polls as being either inaccurate or biased for whatever reasons. I believe that most (most) of the more respected pollsters do not have an inappropriate bias and are in the business of getting it right, and are still the best predictors of election outcomes. That is of course, if you accept that there are certain margins of error to be accounted for.

Why Biden will win:
Discounting the states that have polls that are within 5% (the standard margin of error accepted) of going either way, Biden has not been below 270 electoral votes since early May. Meaning, cut out all the statistical ties, he still wins. Itís that simple.

Currently Biden is at 340, Trump at 198 Ė I give Trump Texas even though it is currently tied. His numbers might look similar to Clintons of 2016 in terms of EVs (four years ago most had Clinton at 337, Trump at 204) BUT his numbers are far more solid given that there are less states that are genuinely in play. In short, for Trump to win he needs to drive deep into blue territory states that are consistently poling for Biden, well outside the margins of error.

So, absent something really crazy happening, I am fairly confident that Biden will beat Trump. Of course, saying I am 80% certain means that one in five times I will be wrong. If thatís the case, come November 3 (or fourth, fifth, whenever the election is called) I will certainly come back to this board and eat a serving of crow.

On the other hand, if (when?) I am shown to be right, I trust that those on this site will not claim that the election was stolen from them by fraud or whatnot. The data has been there all along.
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