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Old 04-20-2020, 10:17 AM
Nontypical Buck
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Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,846

Originally Posted by sconnyhunter View Post
That's an easy speculation to make, when you can't know it for sure. California has had this since November or October. And they're not seeing the kind of death and destruction that you predict. They only started the social distancing experiment two days before New York.
No, I think you're completely wrong on your assertion. The numbers don't back it up. The MODELS do, but not the actual patient counts. This is because people don't live statically, as models predict.

New York and Italy had bad reactions to it for various reasons.
One being they live on top of each other. They rely MASSIVELY on public transit packing people into small areas like sardine for the shelf.
Italy has a very high number of smokers, combined with dense populations and generational living arrangements (grandparents often live with their younger generations).
The virus jumped to humans on the 3rd week of november (source: Michael Osterholm, Epidemiologist/Virologist, Univ of Minn), so I am quite confident that Ca did not have this virus in November.

We have 40,000+ dead WITH the extreme social distancing in less than 7 weeks. The numbers seem to back it up quite clearly to me.

That said, it's time to open back up. At this point the odds are we will lose far, far more people from the sky high unemployment rate than we ever will from the Flu Man Chu.

As far as why it is worse in NY than in CA, the prevailing theory is that since trump shut down travel from China in Jan, but did not shut down travel from Europe until march (12th IIRC), it was Europeans who had returned from China and then spread it in Europe that caused such widespread infection in NY, whereas direct travel from China to Ca was shut down far sooner. Plus as you said, the extreme population density of NYC. (and the idiot DiBlasio).

We need to all not lose sight of the FACT that the only people who are actually to blame for this are the communist Chinese.

Last edited by Valorius; 04-20-2020 at 10:23 AM.
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