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Old 04-19-2020, 10:19 PM
  #117  
Valorius
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Originally Posted by Champlain Islander View Post
I don't think this is anything like basic seasonal flu in both ease and speed of spread. We have had many years of seasonal flu but look at the stats on that last pandemic the Spanish flu which covered the world for a couple of years back in the early part of the 1900's and killed what is estimated as a large percentage of the world's population. Technology and healthcare have certainly improved as well as the media bringing the facts to the people. I think the social separation was successful in eliminating many deaths and a prolonged pandemic. Even today with all we know and ways to help people survive, the death toll will be very high.
I agree with this.

The whole "the flu kills up to 70k people per year" argument overlooks the fact that we are probably going to exceed that even AFTER totally shutting down the country. And that the flu takes a whole year to kill 70k, and we're already over 40k deaths in the US since just Feb 29th.

On the flip side, I have seen estimates that for every .1% the US unemployment rate goes up, an additional 10k Americans die per year. (From suicide, homelessness, drug use, alcohol abuse, homicide, domestic abuse, etc)

Given that millions have lost their job, it is entirely reasonable to expect that hundreds of thousands of Americans will die from the above causes, that would not have.

Then on the flip side again, probably 10s of thousands of Americans who would've died in traffic and work related accidents will not die.

You can go really deep into the weeds trying to figure out if shutting down the country is really saving any lives- but Trump had no choice. He couldnt just let the country take the full power gut punch of an unchecked Chinese flu either.

No win situation.
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