Originally Posted by
TheDudeAbides
I understand what your saying Nomercy, but I was thinking in terms of an investment. I was just thinking it would be nice to pick up for around $200 and sell it down the road for more. My father bought a Ruger 10/22 in 1971 for $41 with tax. $41 in 1971 is around $236 today, good old inflation.
Do not confuse inflation with valuation.
You ain't gonna sell that 1971 Ruger 10/22 for $236 today, not when you can still buy a NEW one for that price. $41 in 1971 has inflated to $236, but that doesn't mean a rifle that cost $41 in 1971 is WORTH that much ($236) in 2014.
Minimum wage in '71 was $1.45 (then $1.60). So the reality is that someone had to work a non-taxed ~29hrs to buy it. Fast forward to 2014, minimum wage is $7.25, that's 5x. A $235 10/22 "value" is 32hrs worked... THAT'S how inflation works. It doesn't mean anything in terms of valuation of a depreciable asset, especially one that's still in production.
For that 10/22 to have GAINED VALUE, it would have to be sellable for MORE than $236 today. Which ain't gonna happen for a 40yr old 10/22. Sure, the SALE PRICE will have raised, and you could sell that 10/22 for $100-150, but selling that for anything less than $236 would be losing money. (Seems counterintuitive, since $236 is a lot more than $41, but that's the EQUIVALENT VALUE, not a gain in real value).
The Nagants don't have anything going for them that makes them an investment item. They aren't particularly worth ANYTHING today, and aren't unique nor special as a collectors investment. They don't have value as a conversion item (as in rebuilding mausers for precision compeitition). Nagant's might cost $400 in the future as inflation continues, but in that same era, a Remington 700 will cost $2000, minimum wage will be $15, and a quarter-pounder meal at McDonalds will cost you $15. When Nagant surplus inventories dry up, they'll raise in price for a while because a foolish superficial demand exists, but then it'll come back down. Kinda like when the import embargo passed several years ago ceasing SKS's flowing into the country and the prices doubled overnight, and now they're back down. Frankly, Norinco and Russian SKS's were worth $250 10-15yrs ago, and you can buy them for that again now, so considering inflation, they're WORTH less today than they were 15yrs ago, at the same price (remembering minimum wage somewhere in the $4.85-5.15 range then, and $7.25 today).
Long story short: A run of the mill Mosin Nagant will never be an investment.