do you have no points?
I'd at least put in for a premo unit in NM and cross your fingers, other states I'd probably put in as a backup/main plan rifle elk hunt.
I think UT has some otc units etc... so don't expect monster bulls really anywhere with low points.
tag costs honestly is the least of the equation, I'd pay 1000 for a quality tag/hunt than 500 for junk, after all is said and done that's a 500 difference in expense on your overall hunt.