50/50 chance every time. If you can tick off a hen or two to bring them closer to your set-up all the better. Most times I have seen the hens either take the gobbler in the other direction, or have came storming in. One thing to try is place a hen decoy on the ground without a stake, and then place a jake decoy on a stake right behind her, as if he was ready to mount her. This set-up works well, and should tick off that gobbler and make him run in providing he can see the two decoys.