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Forecast Calls for US Dominance, European Disintegration
Stratfor ^ | February 14, 2005 | Susan Jones
Posted on 03/02/2005 8:10:11 AM PST by Alex Marko
Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of ***an, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States.
Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world.
The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities."
According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States will continue to dominate the next decade both economically and militarily; and the U.S. is "positioned to replicate the investment boom of the 1995- 2005 decade."
The forecast also says the U.S. gradually will shift its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Pacific basin. Stratfor predict the U.S. will triumph over the "jihadist" insurgents; and it predicts "major leadership transitions" in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
The forecast also says Europe's political union will collapse but its economic union will endure. Tensions will increase over Muslim immigration to European nations, the analysis said. And it said Russian attempts to expand could present new problems.
Russia is collapsing and will become increasingly nationalist and anti-Western, Stratfor said in a "highlights" press release.
China's economic growth will slow down, the analysis predicted, leading to a "flight of investment." Moreover, China will experience "social upheavals" because of the gulf between rich and poor.
***an will succeed China as the principal Asian power, and Taiwan will align itself with ***an, the forecast said.
Stratfor, based in Austin, Texas, said it draws on a global network of intelligence sources in formulated its global analyses.
Highlights of the Stratfor 2005-2015 forecast include:
United States:
-- will continue to dominate the next decade economically and militarily.
-- has the youngest and fastest-growing population among all the major economies.
-- is positioned to replicate the investment boom of the 1995-2005 decade.
-- will successfully manage social security issues.
-- will gradually shift its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Pacific basin.
Middle East:
-- The US-jihadist war will end in favor of the United States.
-- US involvement will shift from military to political.
-- Major leadership transitions in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
Europe:
-- The political union will collapse, but economic union will continue.
-- Economies will remain static under heavy social costs, aging demographics.
-- Tensions will increase over Muslim immigration, possible attacks.
-- Russian attempts to expand could present new problems.
Russia:
-- Russia is collapsing and this will continue.
-- It will become increasingly nationalist and anti-Western.
-- It will eventually reassert itself as a major international player, but with a traditional anti-Western course.
China:
-- Slowdown in economic growth will lead to flight of investment.
-- Massive social upheavals between rich and poor.
-- After 2008 Olympics, turmoil will likely lead to loss of central control, development of regional centers.
-- ***an will succeed China as the principal Asian power.
-- Taiwan will align itself with ***an.
***
Wow, what a forecast! I'm just an average citizen trying to keep up with the world, but everything I've seen up to this point really fits in line with these predictions. Times change quickly, and nothing's certain, but I have been and continue to be optimistic that international democracy will flourish, the terror threat will wither, and America's outlook will improve.
When I read this article, it was as though these analysts had seen my dreams of the future world. The more things come together (Afghanistan, Iraq, the Palestinians, Lebanon & Syria), the greater my hope gets. What an age we live in today.
Thoughts?
The International Crystal Ball Says....
