I have given this alot of thought and Bush will win, it won't be all that close. Why?
Not policy, not record, but how the campaign has fallen out.
Kerry has attacked Bush, Bush remained quiet, not fighting back against specific accusations.
Bush releases an ad, speach, whatever and Kerry is reacting to it pointing out how stupid it is, etc.
Bush during speaches pokes fun at Kerry and his stances, jokes, not serious accusations, ok, serious but done in a funny/humorous fashion, aka the windsurfing, his speach in the convention etc.
Kerry reacts with vile and attempted "this is really serious" speaches and accusations. Kerry makes a BIG deal out of things like swift boat vets and demands Bush stop it. Bush dodges by making a "different" request: "stop them all not just the ones Kerry doesn't like"
Kerry is coming off as a reactionary whiner who just has to be right and always has to have something to say.
Bush is coming off as comfortable with his views and giving the impression that he doesn't even take Kerry as a serious challenger.
People are picking up on this and will remember it in November.
Polls (for what they're worth) have shown that some of Kerry's ads are working. A majority of Americans now believe Bush is lying about Iraq -- an attack that Kerry has been using for about 2 weeks now.
I don't think that will turn the tide in Kerry's favor, but it makes you realize: a lot can happen in a short period of time.
Polls (for what they're worth) have shown that some of Kerry's ads are working.
etothepii,
Actually, if anything is working it is the entire Democratic team returning to its attack dog methodologies they were using in the primaries. Every day there is Kerry and a Ted Kennedy or a Nancy Pelosi or whomever attacking on the same theme. The facts don't bear out what is actually going on. We have a fella from our church who is in the National Guard and he has been in Iraq for 5 months. He is home for 2 weeks of R&R.
I talked to him Sunday and asked him how things were going over there. He told me things were going great and that the press and the Democrats were hiding the truth and telling lies. He said there are a couple of areas like Fallujah where we would like to be doing better, but in 90% fo the country we are in total control, the Iraqi people are supporting and working with us, and we are doing some great things in getting infrastructure rebuilt. The press totally ignores those facts.
Kerry would be a disaster if he was to be elected, but I personally think he will be lucky to get 45% of the vote and 200 electoral votes.
Bill,
I got to spend the weekend with a marine who had served 9 months, and he said he thought the US was doing the right thing too. The news here is way worse than reality.
Isn't that intriguing. For two weeks now Kerry has been saying the President has been ignoring reality. In fact, Kerry wouldn't recognize reality if it was a Mack truck and ran over him!!!
I hear the press talk about how intelligent he is. He has not shown any in the year or so I have been observing him campaign!!! Maybe he would recognize reality if he turned on TV and watched one of the shows. Bu then again, that really isn't reality is it? He still wouldn't recognize it!!!
Public sentiment is swinging more to President Bush too. Two months ago, the polls indicated that 54% of Americans were against the Iraq war. Yesterday the CNN/USA Today poll showed that now only 38% are opposed to the war. Seems even the media's protrayal of how badly they claim it's going isn't going to be enough to save kerry's floundering campaign.
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I think Bush will will by something like 55-60%. I don't think Kerry will get much more than 40-43%. Kerry is lucky the election is this year because all fo the propaganda and lies he is putting out will have been thoroughly investigated by then and will bite him in a big way. Kerry is also dreaming if he doesn't think losing this presidential election and having his lies exposed won't hurt him in his next reelection attempt for U.S. Senate. He has damaged himself severely and won't ever fully recover from it.
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Why Bush will win....
