I don't think I have heard anyone say this yet. With all the polls showing Bush leading Kerry -- some by a thin margin, others by a substantial margin -- and with disarray in the Kerry campaign -- as witness adding/changing campaign leadership personnel in mid-stream and substantial alteration of the Kerry strategy -- it seems to me that the election is Bush's to lose. Thus, if Bush runs an effective campaign and doesn't make any brain dead mistakes, he wins handily.
It seems that the Bush campaign has been well conceived and managed. I don't seem much of this in Texas -- a state where Bush doesn't need to spend money campaigning since it is a foregone conclusion he will win Texas -- but I base this idea on how Bush has moved ahead. It seems Bush has been relatively quiet, but the Republican convention spoke directly to people in a way the Democratic convention did not. There are clear points of difference between Bush and Kerry, and people are preferring the Bush flavor to the Kerry flavor. So long as Bush stays on message, I think it is in the bag.
What can Bush do it to blow it now, not counting any skeletons hiden in the closet which get out? I think if Bush focuses on his game plan and doesn't let himself get distracted by the Kerry campaign (notice how much effort the Bush white house spent on those fraudulent CBS memos? Zero!) all will go well. Bush's position is clear, it is different from Kerry's, and he just needs to stick with it. Kerry will try to nit-pick Bush, pointing out failures. Bush should just state his major goals, articulate how what he is doing contributes to achieving those goals. It is probably a waste of his time to bicker with Kerry over Kerry's reconstructed account of current events, including that we are losing the war in Iraq or that the economy is in the outhouse. How do you argue against someone who paints everything black and ruined? The economy in the outhouse? Lowest unemployment for a long time; home ownership at new highs; how many people refinanced their houses at about 5.5% mortgage rate during Bush administration (my liberal sister who hates Bush certainly did, I wonder how many years of mortgage payments to an evil, capitalist bank that saved her?).
Anyway . . . the election is Bush's to lose. What do you think?
I agree also. Kerry is still waiting for the axe to fall over those forged memos about Bush's ANG service. More and more evidence and information is coming out that Kerry's campaign gave the memos or was involved in getting the memos to CBS. Kerry hasn't finished losing credibility on this and Bush is shrewdly taking the high road and avoiding the mess.
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Jesus Christ--The reason for the season!
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you can read this in English, thank a veteran.
If you're certain you know everything, there's little opportunity to learn anything.
I just heard the news this morning that bush has a 52% to 44% lead in my state. No republican has won in my state since Reagan.
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RE: Election Bush's to lose
I think it is way too early to tell...of course, I see hardly no campaigning in CT, so I have a somewhat neutral opinion. But based on the majority of polls, and some of the "inclusive polling information", it seems that a large number of registered voters and those likely to vote have not made up their mind---some polls indicate as many as 3/10 are still undecided. And almost all the polls indicate that 5-6/10 will rely "heavily" on the debates to make their final choice.
The debates will, unfortunately, either win or lose this election. Most election historians have noted that Gore's facial makeup and rude sneer at one of GW's answers in the 2000 debates probably cost him 5% of the vote in many states---a % he couldn't afford to lose. GW is in the same boat, with so many people on the edge. One wrong move will sway people to Kerry, whether they actually like him or not...
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"The first requisite of a good citizen in this republic of ours is that he shall be able and willing to pull his own weight." Theodore Roosevelt
Who knows where the campaigns will go and who will win? Not me. I prefer to think, however, that campaigns are not won or lost based on good/bad makeup decisions or an ill-considered facial expression.
I prefer to think that Bush is being Bush, Kerry is being Kerry, and that people prefer Bush. I know that Kerry is not Bush and that Bush is not Kerry. They stand for different things. No matter what Kerry says, he isn't going to get me to believe he is other than what John Kerry is. Sometimes it takes awhile for voters to see a candidate. Kerry is a liberal; he is anti-gun; he is anti-defense; and he would prefer to increase taxes and spend more money on social programs. Bush is conservative; he is LESS anti-gun than Kerry (his position on guns, in my opinion, is not real clear and not entirely logical, but he clearly is less anti-gun than Kerry); he is pro-defense; and he would prefer to reduce taxes and not spend more money on social programs. The lines seem pretty clear to me, and this is why I prefer Bush.
Location: The place that Harry Henderson calls home....
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RE: Election Bush's to lose
Alsatian,
Realize that the use of make-up and the facial sneer, taken in their context, indicated to a large portion of Americans that Gore was not fit to be leader. If he could not handle himself during Presidential debates, and behave in a civilized manner, how could he maintain his composure during foreign affairs matters...
What is very interesting, is that during the 2000 elections Gore was ahead by a rough count (and this is from memory, so nobody grill me) of about 53 - 47 over GW. After the debates, the nominees were almost in a 49/49 split.
With the GOP becoming more moderate, and the DNC wishy-washy, many voters are unsure of exactly who is in their corner, because the parties themselves cannot focus their platforms...
Also realize...the votes that decide the presidency, are historically decided in the last 3 months of an election year. About 80% of the people are split equally amongst the two major parties, and the remaining 20% are either undecided, committed, or wavering between the two. And on this BBS, I would dare say that > 95% of the members/readers are already committed...
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"The first requisite of a good citizen in this republic of ours is that he shall be able and willing to pull his own weight." Theodore Roosevelt
everyone likes to say that the election is close and that the debates will determine the winner but i tend to disagree on the debates issue. Theres so many rules on these debates and that the person asking the question CANNOT interrupt the INCUMBENT or the CHALLENGER. Also Kerry has been on so many different positions on many issues and he will be under fire for that in the debates and note that Bush has not lost a debate and he is comfortable under his own skin whereareas Kerry is a robot where his aides tell him what to do.
Election Bush's to lose
