Estimate contrasts Bush statements, says civil war possible
The Associated Press
Updated: 10:46 a.m. ET Sept. 16, 2004
WASHINGTON - A highly classified National Intelligence Estimate assembled by some of the government"s most senior analysts this summer provided a pessimistic assessment about the future security and stability of Iraq.
Estimate contrasts Bush statements
The estimate contrasts with public comments of Bush and his senior aides who speak more optimistically about the prospects for a peaceful and free Iraq. "We"re making progress on the ground," Bush said at his Texas ranch late last month.
"It states the obvious," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said on Air Force One as Bush flew to a day of campaigning in Minnesota. "It talks about the scenarios and the different challenges we face." He said it did not reach any conclusions and left it up to policy-makers to act on the information.
A CIA spokesman declined to comment Wednesday night.
Senators say risks of failure great
Senate Republicans and Democrats on Wednesday denounced the Bush administration"s slow progress in rebuilding Iraq, saying the risks of failure are great if it doesn"t act with greater urgency.
"It"s beyond pitiful, it"s beyond embarrassing, it"s now in the zone of dangerous," said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., referring to figures showing only about 6 percent of the reconstruction money approved by Congress last year has been spent.
Foreign Relations Committee members vented their frustrations at a hearing where the State Department explained its request to divert $3.46 billion in reconstruction funds to security and economic development. The money was part of the $18.4 billion approved by Congress last year mostly for public works projects
White House spokesman Scott McClellan said circumstances in Iraq have changed since last year. "It"s important that you have some flexibility."
But Hagel said the shift in funds "does not add up in my opinion to a pretty picture, to a picture that shows that we"re winning. But it does add up to this: an acknowledgment that we are in deep trouble."
'Lack of planning apparent'
Hagel, Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, R-Ind., and other committee members have long argued " even before the war " that administration plans for rebuilding Iraq were inadequate and based on overly optimistic assumptions that Americans would be greeted as liberators.
But the criticism from the panel"s top Republicans had an extra sting coming less than seven weeks before the presidential election in which President Bush"s handling of the war is a top issue.
"Our committee heard blindly optimistic people from the administration prior to the war and people outside the administration " what I call the "dancing in the street crowd," that we just simply will be greeted with open arms," Lugar said. "The nonsense of all of that is apparent. The lack of planning is apparent."
"It"s beyond pitiful, it"s beyond embarrassing, it"s now in the zone of dangerous," said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., referring to figures showing only about 6 percent of the reconstruction money approved by Congress last year has been spent.
Why is it not surprising that a congressman is upset that money hasn't been spent quickly enough?
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I saw that $3 billion was just moved from reconstruction to security. It's more than about money. It's about dern time the Iraqis stepped up. The idea that we can provide 100% of the security while the general population sits idly by is nuts.
I think it's rather ironic that the Dems have seized on this report and believe it to be the gospel truth. The last report released from the U.S. intelligence was about weapons of mass distruction.
I think you will see in the next few months the few cities we are having difficulty with will be raided and raided to a conclusion.
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In politics one always tries to make one's opponent look bad. So with the CIA report, the Democrats will say that Bush's own CIA thinks that Iraq is going to fall into a civil war.
Well, I don't think that is what the report says. I think the report outlines several possible scenarios and suggests action plans for each scenario. I'm going on a pronghorn hunt in Wyoming in mid-October. The weather could be hot, or there could be 8" of snow and blizzard conditions. Believe that I have considered both scenarios and won't drive 1,300 miles from Dallas, Texas, without being prepared for both scenarios and everything in between.
No one can deny that Iraq is a sticky wicket and that it is tough sledding. On the other hand, anyone who thinks any such actions are going to be a cakewalk are the kind of people who think real life marriage can be like the soft, fuzzy notions of "true love" rendered in pop music lyrics. It is a little more complicated and tough, folks. Part of the story here is the news media only reports the negatives about circumstances in Iraq.
U.S. intelligence pessimistic on Iraq future
