Why are dem prez candidates losers?

[Alsatian]

Why can't the democrats win presidential elections? Bill Clinton would have lost to George HW Bush in 1992 if Ross Perot had not stolen voters from Bush (alas, I was one of the unfaithful!). Clinton won in 1996, with the benefit of encumbency. Carter won in 1976 running against an encumbent republican who replaced Richard Nixon after he resigned in shame. That is not a successful 30-year record, in my opinion. What is the problem?

My theory is that the primary system leads to the selection of a far-left Democrat as the Democratic candidate; the Republican candidate slides on over to the middle left open by the far-left Democrat; and the Republican cleans up by collecting votes from his base as well as from the middle which is scared to hell of a far-left Democrat. The Democrat can't slide over to the middle, because the Republican can use the Democrat's far-left campaign statements used against the moderate Democrats during the Democratic primary season agains the Democratic candidate. By the way, I don't claim this theory as my unique insight, I'm pretty sure I've read this advanced by smarter, better informed people than myself. This year is a brilliant exemplar of this effect. Surely a less far-left Democrat could have been selected to run against Bush! I mean, Kerry was the lieutenant-Governor of Massachusetts under that Dukakis left winger; he is from Massachusetts; he is super anti-gun.

The question begged by my theory -- or the theory of authors I read somewhere in the past -- is why does this happen. One plausible explanation is that the Democratic primaries only bring out the most committed Democrats, and that implies far-left Democrats. The middle of the roaders stay in where it is warm or go to work instead of going to vote in a stupid primary.

What do you think? Why can't the Democrats run strong presidential campaigns?

[gobbler afflicted]

I see your point but I disagree with it. Personally I think the nation is split down the middle.

You say Clinton won v/s Bush in 92 because of perrot, and thats a fair argument, but Gore lost to Bush Jr. in 2000 due to Ralph Nader.

I think Bush will be re-elected and Hillary Clinton will become president in 2008.

[mrfritz44]

Hillary Clinton will become president in 2008

Now I know why some on this board have debated the use of the ignore feature.

[Alsatian]

Now, GA did not say he WANTED Hillary Clinton to be elected.

You have a point about Al Gore. Perhaps you are right about Ralph Nader. Remember, however, that Ross Perot took some 20% of the vote in 1992, unless my memory fails me (and my memory is not perfect). I don't remember what percent of the vote Ralph Nader pulled, but I doubt it was 20%. Still, your point is that without Nader Gore wins and this changes the 30 year statistic. Perhaps.

My point may be poorly taken. It is only out there for disinterested conversation. I'm not generally a Democrat, so if this is an error Democrats are systematically prone to make, that is just fine with me. I'm not providing campaign advice to them, just bemusedly curious. Still, I do wonder why Kerry instead of some other Democrat.

Back on Hillary, I think she is a loser. How many otherwise loyal Democrats or moderates leaning Democrat would be scared off the first woman president? I'm not saying a woman couldn't be a successful president, but you have to acknowledge that this is new territory. Some people won't buy the first year of a new model of car -- let some other sucker be the guinea pig for Ford, Chevy, Chrysler to work out the manufacturing bugs on! Additionally, Hillary is again on the far-left of the Democratic spectrum. She is not a Margaret Thatcher, a Golda Meier, an Indira Gandhi. She is going to leave that soft white moderate underbelly available for the Republican prez candidate to gorge upon. This is not to say she won't run, I'm just saying if I were the top dog in the smoke filled backroom of the Democratic National Committee she would not be put on the ticket as prez. But I'm not getting a lot of calls for advice and participation in decision making!

[BarnesX.308]

I think Bush will be re-elected and Hillary Clinton will become president in 2008.

I don't like that scenario. I'll take the 4 years of Bush, but Hillary? I doubt she'll be able to beat Rudy.