Convention Bounce Results Since 1964.

[etothepii]

This is Gallup's results for convention "bounces." They have not published a poll for Bush yet, but Kerry's is there. The "1st" and "2nd" refers to which convention was held first and second.

Post-Convention Increases in Support, 1964-2004

2004 John Kerry -1 point -2 points (likely voters) 1st

2000 George W. Bush 8 points 4 points (likely voters) 1st
2000 Al Gore 8 points 8 points (likely voters) 2nd

1996 Bill Clinton 5 points 2nd
1996 Bob Dole 3 points 1st

1992 Bill Clinton 16 points 1st
1992 George Bush 5 points 2nd

1988 George Bush 6 points 2nd
1988 Michael Dukakis 7 points 1st

1984 Ronald Reagan 4 points 2nd
1984 Walter Mondale 9 points 1st

1980 Ronald Reagan 8 points 1st
1980 Jimmy Carter 10 points 2nd

1976 Jimmy Carter 9 points 1st
1976 Gerald Ford 5 points 2nd

1972 Richard Nixon 7 points 2nd
1972 George McGovern 0 points 1st

1968 Richard Nixon 5 points 1st
1968 Hubert Humphrey 2 points 2nd

1964 Lyndon Johnson 3 points 2nd
1964 Barry Goldwater 5 points 1st

[etothepii]

I'm not suggesting anything by this. My feeling is that polls don't pridict the future, but they tell a story. I just found this info interesting, and thought I'd share it.

[etothepii]

Here's a couple of polling links:

[link]http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm[/link]

[link]http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm[/link]

[archer 2]

That is interesting , another first for Kerry , no other candidate managed to get a negative result after their convention since 1964. Looks like ole Lurch's campaign is in a total vacuum.

[etothepii]

September 06, 2004
Bush Gets Small Convention Bounce, Leads Kerry by Seven
Post-convention poll shows Bush 52%, Kerry 45% among likely voters


by Jeffrey M. Jones
Page: 1, 2 Next

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The CNN/USA Today/Gallup post-Republican convention poll -- the first national poll conducted entirely after the completion of that convention -- shows George W. Bush getting a small increase in voter support. Bush's share of the vote among likely voters increased two percentage points, from 50% to 52%, while Kerry's dropped by an equal amount, in the two-way race. Bush now leads Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry by 52% to 45% among likely voters, compared with a 50% to 47% lead for Bush prior to the convention. Bush maintains that same 52% to 45% margin when independent candidate Ralph Nader, who receives 1% support among likely voters, is included in the ballot question.

Notably, this is the first time Bush has had a lead over Kerry beyond the poll's margin of error since Kerry's surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses propelled him to his party's nomination.