Exactly. The Deepwater Horizon rig charged BP some $500,000/day for drilling. I wonder how long a drilling company wants to let their rigs sit idle due to the drilling ban? If I were in charge, I would not wait around, I would immediately look to deploy my rig elsewhere. Of course, this doesn't mean that every rig is immediately going to be moved. It is sort of like musical chairs -- there probably aren't enough chairs for everyone. So, those rigs that find contracts move, the others sit. When yet additional contracts arrive, some of the remaining idled rigs move. When the drilling ban is lifted, then the rigs will trickle back in, but I suppose it is likely this would be gradual and not immediate. Maybe there would be a long term disposition of the drilling rig operators to avoid drilling where the US government may instantly and without prior notice leave them idle and playing musical chairs again?
This drilling ban does not smell prudent to me. Recall how long it took Obama to make up his mind about what to do in Afghanistan? How long will it take him to figure out what to do offshore? In point of fact, there is no reason to think that the offshore drilling is in itself unsafe. BP pretty clearly was a bad actor, did not apply customary practices, defied the best advice of their subcontractors. It also appears that this imprudent non-customary plan was reviewed and known by MMS which gave a rubber stamp to the plan, probably against counter advisement of the subcontractors.
We shall see. Perhaps I'm wrong. But I'm not sure Obama considered the law of unintended consequences.
Last edited by Alsatian; 07-02-2010 at 05:15 AM.
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