anyone following what's been going on over there? we may be witnessing full-scaleregime change, fueled, in the face of thecomplete state media blackout, entirely by twitter, facebook, and youtube. the guys running the demonstrations are from the same crew that brought the shaw down, so they know their business.
while neither faction is particularly pro-US, any of the probable outcomes here willlikely see a greatly weakened, less imperialistic iran in the near future, which can only be good for the west.
today should be pivotal. it is their sabbath, and a "day of mourning" demonstration for those killed earlier in the week is planned.
Thirty years ago they experienced regime change, largely to slap us in the face, at the time they vowed to one day rule this country. Back then they had barely entered the 20th century, still largely wore traditional clothing, and had far less pop culture than us. They overthrew their own goobermint because they weren't happy with it because they felt that it was merely a puppet of ours.
Thirty years hence they may once again experience regime change, largely to slap themselves in the face, and we pretty much own their culture. They have entered the 21st century with astonishing speed thanks to our influence and acheivements, predominantly wear our clothing, and now have all the trappings of American pop culture from IPods to fast food. They're probably about to overthrow their own goobermint since they aren't happy with it because it isn't more like ours.
Gotcha.
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Watched an Iranian born guy on TV last night. He says that the mullahs have much more clout in Iran than the politicians do. He also says that the mullahs are running the country during this crisis.
Until you see the Iranian oligarchy hanging from streetlights, there will be no regime change in Iran. They can twitter, facebook, and youtube all they want.
And, if you study governments with, effectively, the power to "re-make" events as to portray their regimes in the most favorable light (i.e.Iran, North Korea, et al) through decidedly state-run media, you'll find that the citizenry ultimately ends up not knowing any better than what they were told by their television and newspapers. Couple that with proxies who'll ultimately crack down on the dissenting population, and you have a near failsafe means of guaranteeing your regime's survivability.
I predict that you'll continue to see protests, even large protests, in Iran for the next days to weeks. Once the activity dies down and people begin to realize that there's little hope (again), the Revolutionary Guard will begin (quietly)whisking these people away, no doubt because they had overdue library books or spit on a sidewalk.
Mr. Moussavi's longevity will be determined by how long he can stay in the spotlight. As soon as it fades, he is toast.
Apparently our primary and most immediate concern is a nuclear Iran. I don't get it though. We have had more vending machine incidents than recorded hostile nuclear attacks. That's a fact. Therefore, we should be unconcerned about such matters.
I guess the possibility of regime change is there...certainly the ape Ahmedinijad (sic) was among the cadre
of savages who occupied the U.S. embassy during the Peanut administration so I'm sure he knows how it's done.
Unless the mullahs allow it, there will be no regime change in Iran, IMO. I believe the protests will continue and
they will be put down with all due savagery, ruthlessness and aplomb, as if this is the natural order of things and now it's time to get on with things.....now......about Israel.....
iran
