RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
I'll say, whatever happens on Wall Street today, it will be driven by emotional, non-rational trading decisions. I'll also say that the market will not establish any new trend today or significantly change its setpoint. From my seat the market has been pretty steady at about 8,500 for a couple of months. Here a +700 point day, there a -700 point day, but we still are around 8,500. Has anyone else noticed that?
I think it is funny when the market moves +700 points, and some news pundits say this is the market responding favorably to X. When the market moves -700 points, some news pundits say this is the market responding unfavorably to Y. But they haven't noticed that the market hasn't moved. It is still sitting at 8,500.
Right now, the day-to-day moves of the market are ridiculously emotional and irrational. From a longer term perspective -- weeks or months -- the market is stable and not moving anywhere. I guess, given all the talk about how bad the economy is, I take it as favorable that the market is not trending downwards and seems stable (over a longer term than day-to-day) at about 8,500.
RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
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ORIGINAL: Alsatian
I'll say, whatever happens on Wall Street today, it will be driven by emotional, non-rational trading decisions. I'll also say that the market will not establish any new trend today or significantly change its setpoint. From my seat the market has been pretty steady at about 8,500 for a couple of months. Here a +700 point day, there a -700 point day, but we still are around 8,500. Has anyone else noticed that?
I think it is funny when the market moves +700 points, and some news pundits say this is the market responding favorably to X. When the market moves -700 points, some news pundits say this is the market responding unfavorably to Y. But they haven't noticed that the market hasn't moved. It is still sitting at 8,500.
Right now, the day-to-day moves of the market are ridiculously emotional and irrational. From a longer term perspective -- weeks or months -- the market is stable and not moving anywhere. I guess, given all the talk about how bad the economy is, I take it as favorable that the market is not trending downwards and seems stable (over a longer term than day-to-day) at about 8,500.
wow....a voice of reason....I knew there had to be at least one of you out there !
RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
Excellent post Alsatian. BUT, I disagree a little. Virtually ALL of the economic information is negative. There are the spikes up upon some little bit of "good news" like you said, but that is quickly overcome by the reality that the economy is struggling on almost every front. I am not an expert like some on here, but my prediction is (and has been for a while) is that we are headed lower. More and more "experts" (the ones that actually make print other than on hunting sites ) are saying that this is probably going to be a longer term bear market and we haven't seen the bottom.
I'd think our resident expert VC could post something that made so much sense once in a while. Instead, he types 3 times as much and says nothing,,,,, other than being a spell checker. Keep up the good work VC!!!!!
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RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
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ORIGINAL: stealthycat II
I'll say we see a 700 point drop ....
Doesn't look like that will happen..at least not today. Don't forget Stealthy....the money guys are just itching to get back in the game. They have to because thats how they live and pay their bills. The further it goes down the more they make on the rebound.Many already took their money out so they are just waiting for any hint of a rebound and will jump right back in and ride the wave. I doubt that will happen for a while but thereis some value out there.
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RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
Cascadedad: My response was to the opening post -- what is the market going to do December 12, presumably in response to the failure of the auto bailout. At 3 PM EST I see the market is up ~50 points to 8,614. Looks like the market is totally nonplused by the auto bailout brouhaha. Further, my response was directed to the idiots that -- maybe for their own personal agendas? -- pretend to observe some rationale or cause for the dramatic market moves over the last month or two months but don't have the intellectual discipline to see that the market is steady.
To your point, a different one than raised in the opening of this thread, where is the market going long term . . . I don't know. I only observe that the US stock market isn't giving out any clues. The market flirted with dropping below 8,000, but then returned to about 8,500. It looks to me, from the vantage point of today, that the market has adjusted to the new economic reality and has revalued at about 8,500. All the economic news you have alluded to -- investment bank troubles, mortgage backed security troubles, Detroit automobile troubles, unemployment troubles, recession projections, etc. -- have been assimilated and built into the market, in my opinion. I'm not an expert in this, but I'm going to venture the opinion that the market has established a bottom and is stable. When some of the structural problems of the economy have been worked through, the market is going to return to advances. When will the advance begin? I don't know. What structural problems need to be worked through? How about one of the big three automakers collapsing, their market share being assimilated by the other automakers, the idled plant (modern, quality plant selectively) acquired by others for 25 cents on the dollar enabling -- for example -- Ford and Chrysler to cast off some of their least efficient and most outdated plant and begin transitioning to modernized plant cheaply (the "creative destruction" of capitalism -- kind of like forest fires are followed by green growth LOVED by elk and other ungulates). Those are my thoughts.
RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
Cascadedad, I'm surprised you're posting at all these days. One would think you would have already retired to a life of wealth and opulence.
Lol, after all, it is you who is on record as stating that you can time the markets and make money, right? Well, what we've had the last few months is a market timer's wet dream. You have been buying and selling into and out of the markets, haven't you? There was a two day period when the markets showed about a 13% gain. You did make that 13% gain, I presume.
If not, why not? What are you waiting for? Why are you waiting for trends that could take months to produce a 13% gain, when you could be doing now in TWO DAYS? Oh wait. I forgot. You're listening to the "experts" to help you as to when to get in and out...but then I thought you said you ignore all that "expert" stuff??? I thought you essentially said those guys with education and experience in the industry are all full of it?
RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
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Don't forget Stealthy....the money guys are just itching to get back in the game.
Most of the money guys I know make money consistently from the natural tendency of the public to rush into the market when it has already risen and flee from it when it is falling. They also seem to profit from the tendency to flee toward safety such as treasuries and then back out again after the market has risen. and so it goes. There is no need for an itch, human nature provides copious activity.
Location: On an Island in the west coast of New England
Posts: 13,132
RE: the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
Market timing is a great way to really make money.......or lose it. Odds are not in your favor to try and anticipate the market.True enough some people have a knack or better luck and come out ahead, at least for a while. Most eventually lose and I compare it to gambling where the house has an edge. Unless you are the smartest market analyst in the world...somebody will always beat you to the punch. Portfolio diversification gets the job done pretty well and you don't have anulcer worrying about it. Slow and steady is my motto.
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the over / under on todays drop on Wall Street
