Election predictions from polls to vote

[DougMD]

My guess is McCain/Palin will widen their lead to double digits in most polls over the next few weeks, but have it contract back to around 5 or 6% when the election is held, winning easily.

You?

[Steve863]

I think the debates will be important. If either side looks weak it could hurt them. If all remains constant and McCain/Palin hold their own in the debates I think they will win the election by the largest margin since Bush I. I think the democrats are underestimating some traditionally blue states also. I think McCain/Palin could surprise them and win a state or two in the northeast that has generally gone to democrats.

[Alsatian]

I think the selection of Palin is determinative. She is getting people on board with McCain, and not just the conservative base. And the smarmy attacks by the politicians, entertainers, and liberal press are a perfect storm that just keeps wratcheting up the points for McCain/Palin.

I think there is some sort of foil effect associated with Palin. She makes McCain look more like what I believe McCain to be, hightens the profile and stature of McCain to what it OUGHT TO HAVE BEEN ALL ALONG. She makes Obama/Biden look like spoiled lawyers with piddly or no accomplishments.

I'm wondering how well Palin will perform in the debates. It looks rough for Obama/Biden. If Palin is weak on some point, she can keep a low profile and minimize her damage -- she isn't the presidential candidate, she is the vice-presidential candidate. If Palin has some strength on some point, if she bests Biden it is going to be really bad for Biden, because he is the presumed favored competitor. I think if the debates are fair, Palin does reasonably well and doesn't damage the ticket. But there is a wild card. The debate is a BIG national stage, lots of people will watch it. So far people have just loved Palin. The wild card is that people are again going to take a furtherstrong liking to her -- connecting because she is a real peron, like them, who is sincere and has passion for improving government and a track record of reform -- and boost the currency of McCain/Palin yet further.

[Griswold]

One thing I don't think is going to happen is an easy win for Obama. I know many Democrats are still predicting this based on the state-by-state polls, but I simply don't think it's going to happen.

I think there's potential for a relatively comfortable win by McCain, but right now I'd have to say I think the national polls are reflecting a convention bounce. That will subside, and the polls will continue to be neck-and-neck into November, and the race will come down to the usual handful of important swing states. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico. Those states will decide this election, IMO.

[Steve863]

People are loving Palin because she is a good looking novelty who claims conservative values. She really has a short track record in signing any laws that reflect what she claims. She will need to perform well in the debates to win over the independents that McCain/Palin will need to win the election. She obviously has the conservative base even if she performs as poorly as Dan Quayle. Biden should't be underestimated and is no push over. He was in politics while Palin was still in grammer school and has been questioned and interviewed before the entire nation many a time.

I don't think people should get the idea that McCain will now somehow turn into a far right-wing candidate or president just because he has Palin on the ticket. McCain has always done what McCain thought was the right thing to do and I think Palin will have very little influence on him. Actually, that might have been a reason for him choosing her. By choosing her he has a real Washington outsider with not much of a reputation on a national level on any big issues. Cheney may have pulled Bush by the nose for most of his presidency, but I can assure anyone that it won't be the same under a McCain administration. McCain will be calling the shots and I am quite confident that some of them eventually won't sit well with many right-wingers but may not be a bad thing for the nation as a whole. He will make things interesting I am sure.

[burniegoeasily]

The debates will tell it all.

[timbercruiser]

If the Republicans are able to get Hussein in the open, without his canned speeches, and he has a breakdown like he islikely to do then that will be the final nail in Hussein's race. The one on one debates or the town hall get togethers where he can be pinned down on specifics is something he can't handle. Maybe he will show up with Rev.Wright and his wife so they can help out.

[fodderblade]

Final outcome will be like 2000 a virtually 50/50 split withpossible court intervention.

This country is still DEEPLY and BITTERLY divided - the war in Iraq and the tanking economy being the chief causes. Either candidate or voter who underestimates that fact does so at their own peril.

[Lanse couche couche]

Dunno about how deeply and bitterly we are divided over Iraq. The last time i checked things are looking pretty good over there and many of the bitter anti folks have been pretty quiet about it.In fact the only time it has really come up recently has been when Obama pretty much had to eat crow over the whole surge thing.

[fodderblade]

I disagree Lanse, those who oppose the war are glad the surge worked, like me. I'm tickled pink it worked because that makes it all the more obvious it is time to withdraw and come home from Iraq.

A surge is just that, and expansion then a contraction.

Hard to make the case that the surge worked so we need to stay forever.

It makes perfect sense to say, the surge worked, so lets start comming home.

"Mission Accomplished" - whatever the original mission was, WMDs, Al Qeada, Bio-weapons, Nation Building, Fighting insurgents, take your pick.

I am sick and tired of sacrificing our beloved troops for lies and mission creep all because this admin/party can't admit - Iraq was a mistake - mop up the mess and come home.

Bring'em home.