I see there is an article in Newsweek that seems to be to the point that the US is losing its leadership role in the world. I have not read the article, but I'm guessing there are multiple angles to the analysis. The economies of China and India are on track to replace the US economy as the big dog in the world. The size of these populations and these economies is so danged big, I suppose the analysis suggests, that the US becomes somewhat irrelevant as a result. It is kind of like, if you are a software developer, do you develop your application first for the MicroSoft Windows operating system platform (+80% market share) or the MacIntosh operating system platform (-20% market share)??? Similarly, selling into the Chinese market and into the Indian market is going to be the no-brainer choice in a short period of time. "Bollywood," the Indian movie industry center, is larger than "Hollywood," the progenitor.
Nor would I lose sleep over India and China becoming major markets, that's just more places to sell our wares too. Besides, the Chinese are taking in money so fast that their economy is superheating, India won't fare much better, so sit back and wait for the meltdown that's to come. Neither culture has had any experience with such wealth in hundreds of years, they aren't prepared for it and they'll both implode under the weight of all that money. We're set up to be a rich culture, we can handle it with ease, they'll self destruct. Socialism and money just don't mix.
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Kevin Haendiges
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I don't think 'irrelevant' is an accurate description of our worldly influence. There's more to relevance than economy, but even so, ours will still havethe most international reach even if China does surpass us in GDP. China makes its money producing cheap crap.We, on the other hand, have the financial markets, culture of business, and the knowledge-based economy that the entire world seeks. We also all-but-control the Internet. English is the international language for a reason. I'd like to see millions of Westerners studying Mandarin or Hindu. Just isn't going to happen...
China and India will definitely be competitors to us economically, but they still have a while to go. Just look at China, they can't put on the olympics without shutting down their industry in the city for 2 months, they're having food and water shortages, the wealth is very very unevenly distributed and that's all in addition to them growing at an unsustainable breakneck speed. China has a crash coming in their future, whether they take the steps to make it a long gradual one or a big one is yet to be seen. I mean, you think we have a "subprime mortgage" mess......what happens when all of these loans that were made by the Chinese government to industries that either 1) have a bunch of political clout but aren't worth a dam or 2) got loans just so that they could hire people, even though there is an exorbinant amount of supply for the products already....come to a head? Also, China has 600,000 trained engineers, but estimates say that only 1/3 of those engineers actually have the skills to comptete on a global level.
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RE: America is irrelevant
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ORIGINAL: kevin1
Nor would I lose sleep over India and China becoming major markets, that's just more places to sell our wares too. Besides, the Chinese are taking in money so fast that their economy is superheating, India won't fare much better, so sit back and wait for the meltdown that's to come. Neither culture has had any experience with such wealth in hundreds of years, they aren't prepared for it and they'll both implode under the weight of all that money. We're set up to be a rich culture, we can handle it with ease, they'll self destruct. Socialism and money just don't mix.
China is refusing to use any of its money to fix their infrastructure. It won"™t be long until they are living in a sewer and spending their billions for clean water. I guess we can supply them with bottled water, which should have the normal tariff they place on our good now. Id insist on the tariff.
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kaafir mushrik
Unintended consequences and God have one thing in common: Liberals don’t believe in either of them.
I wouldnt lose sleep about getting overshadowed by Bollywood. Have you ever seen even a snippet of one of those films. [:-]
We have some friends who have an Indian restaurant in Shreveport. I have seen a few of their movies, and I kinda like 'em. They have made some dramatic films that were as good or better than some Hollywood produces. You just have to know going in that someone will start singing.
Here's another thought. I used to work for Samsung. It came as an unsettling shock to meto learnthat Samsung sold more product -- calibrated on sales revenues not units -- in the Chinese marketplace than in the US marketplace. Thus, for Samsung, China was, in a sense,a more important market than the US. And China was seen as a more rapidly growing market. This is a big change, folks. Point to the contrary, it may be that the US market would have been smaller in total revenue but associated with a higher margin of profit from selling higher end equipment in the US and lower end, more commoditized equipment in China. But still, it is a shock that according to ANY figure of merit, some other nations marketplace might be more seductive and attractive than our own.
Point of information: I don't think China is socialist any more. I believe they are pretty much capitalists now. Maybe I'm mistaken. They continue to have an autocratic, non-democratic government, but socialism is pretty much gone now, I think. I welcome any necessary "re-education" as to my uncertain knowlege of China's residual socialism.
To me it is not a difficult thought that the US rocketed to preeminence and power as the result of unique historical circumstances that may be passing away for us and lifting others into our place instead. I certainly would not choose to degrade my standard of living to be in China just to have the hopes that in 30 years or 50 years the economy would eclipse that of the US. I am interested in hearing what others think about these changing circumstances and what may portend for us here.
Personally I don't feel we need to be the big dog. We got along just fine up until before WW-I minding our own business and living our own life on our small stage of middle North America. Would it be bad to step down and just go back to minding our own business? It is a question, not an answer. For example, maybe relinquishing the lead entails doing the bidding of others, licking the boot of the Chinese? I don't know. Your thoughts are appreciated.
What will it feel like to have others making the key scientific advancements in the second half of the 21st century and onwards? What will it feel like to have others breaking the new ground with the highest buildings, the biggest oil tankers, the longest bridges, the biggest dams? What will it feel like to have other countries more admire the popular culture of China and India then our own? Now I'm not saying this is going to happen, I'm asking you to contemplate the possibility fora few minutes and share what the implications of such a change might be, if it were in fact to come to pass, which I freely acknowledge is uncertain.
I don't have a problem with 'stepping aside' in the self-image department. These nations are just now building themselves up and hope to reach 'American Standards' (for lack of a better term) in a few years.
We've been there for at least 60 years, and with both China and India 2 to 4 times our size in population,
any self-respecting capitalist who discounts either of these burgeoning economies is just plain stupid.
That being said, I don't see these nations engaged in 'globalization' in the way we are engaged in it. We're sending jobs TO these places. THese places are TAKING jobs being sent their way....our loss their gain.
I guess if you want to GROW, you need heavy industry (both have their own heavy industries), a technological base (both do) and a manufacturing base (just step into Wal-Mart to see all the stuff made in China and shipped over here) as well. Can we say we even have the same things here anymore ?
I am becoming more of an isolationist (G.Washington warned of 'foreign entanglements') and feel that if we 'pulled in our horns' a little, we'd be forced to resume our gigantic manufacturing role just to supply ourselves with the necessities of daily life....industry makes for a strong economy and well, we're not doing that sort of thing anymore on the grand scale that put us at #1 and kept us there for 50 years.
P.S.: I don't profess to be an economic genius, but I don't see how a country like China would 'fail' or
have a collapsing economy if they're just rolling in dough. That's not how it works, IMO, rather I
think it's 180-degrees to the opposite. Besides, up till about 5 years ago, one of the best travel
values was a trip to mainland China. Now, the Yen is becoming very strong on the world market
and China as a 'value destination' is quickly getting too pricy for the lagging U.S. Dollar.
America is irrelevant
