Presidential election prospects

[Alsatian]

I heard Cokie Roberts on National Public Radio (NPR) state today that 80% of the public think that the nation is headed in the wrong direction. She inferred from this that a Democratic presidential candidate should have smooth sailing. She noted, however, against this inference polling of Obama against McCain and Hillary against McCain shows a much closer race. I think her first inference -- 80% of public think nation headed in wrong direction, hence 80% of nation will vote for a Democratic presidential candidate -- is the weak link in her thinking. I suppose she is just advancing the naieve and obvious inference (rather than her own inference or analysis, a strawman argument as it were), but to my thinking it is a very sophomoric and misdirected. These people don't get it: GW Bush isn't running for election in November. It isn't Bush running against Hillary or Obama. I haven't seen anywhere that McCain has signed an agreement to follow directly in the footsteps of GW Bush's foreign policy.

On a related note, if Hillary and Obama were simply "not GW Bush foreign policy," things might go better for them. However, they are much more than "not Bush" -- they are pro-Gay, pro-immigration, pro-increased taxes, anti-gun, etc. In a few words, they are hitting each and every one of the liberal hot buttons. This serves to remind people who are dissatisfied with GW Bush that it could be worse -- we could have had Al Gore in office for 8 years, we could have had John Kerry in office since 2004, we could get Hillary Clinton in office or Barack Obama in office.

This is one of the weaknesses of polls, one question doesn't provide enough information.

Your thoughts?

[Griswold]

I think if Cokie Roberts or any other elitist leftist that make up our mainstream news media thinks this will be "smooth sailing" for the Democrats, they're in for quite a surprise. Democrats may well be able to seize the moment of anti-Bushism and ride that to victory, but when every day there's a new headline about Obama's racist, anti-American pastor who just also happens to be his spiritual mentor, or Clinton saying that she dodged bullets during a trip to the Middle East when video shows that she did anything but, there's no way it's going to be smooth sailing.

[burniegoeasily]

There is apoll out that states that 50% of all polls are incorrect.

I find polls very interesting yet misleading. It only shows the ideals of the deomgraphicsof thoseinvolved/prescibing to the outlet it generates its info from.