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Old 07-11-2007, 05:01 PM   #1
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Default Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

and how do we wipe them out?

WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded al-Qaida has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned.
The conclusion suggests that the group that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to rebuild despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.
Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack.
A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal that will be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.
The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.
Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West." The document pays special heed to the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.
Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."
The group also has created "the most robust training program since with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.
At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.
John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.
"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."
The threat assessment comes as the National Intelligence Council is preparing a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.
Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would be ready for distribution this summer.
Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al- Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.
Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer timeframe to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.
The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.
"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."
Several European countries"among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands"are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.
This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.
The Bush administration has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.
"The number one enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida. Al-Qaida continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday.
The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.
The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.
The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.
It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.
"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.
The counterterror official said the report does not focus on Osama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in al-Qaida. Officials say the network has become more like a "family-oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.
Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.
Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area, despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.
"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to al-Qaida," Fingar said.
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Old 07-11-2007, 05:20 PM   #2
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

Does it really matter, where at war which we finally decided to fight years after they declared war on us?

We win by continuing to take the battle to them. We don't let them win in Iraq. We break their ties to Iran. We take the battle into the tribal areas of Pakistan.

How do we handle Iran? Should we bomb or just a full blockade? Both have their good and bad points.

Pakistan, how do we do that? Do we bomb or push in ground forces in some very tough terrain?
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Old 07-11-2007, 05:25 PM   #3
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

Aren't you one of the ones that have continuelly stated we are fighting them in Iraq so we don't have to fight them here?

I think we have to kill their leaders and cut off funding.
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Old 07-11-2007, 05:26 PM   #4
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

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How do we handle Iran?
I think Isreal is feeding us bad intelligence about their nuke acpabilities so we do go after them. Wouldn't be the first time.

We missed the head of this snake years ago and now we may have to kill millions to be safe.
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Old 07-11-2007, 05:36 PM   #5
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

Pakistan ? maybe we shouldn't be so worried about hurting their feelings.

A secret military operation in early 2005 to capture senior members of Al Qaeda in Pakistan"s tribal areas was aborted at the last minute after top Bush administration officials decided it was too risky and could jeopardize relations with Pakistan, according to intelligence and military officials.
The target was a meeting of Qaeda leaders that intelligence officials thought included Ayman al-Zawahri, Osama bin Laden"s top deputy and the man believed to run the terrorist group"s operations.
But the mission was called off after Donald H. Rumsfeld, then the defense secretary, rejected an 11th-hour appeal by Porter J. Goss, then the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, officials said. Members of a Navy Seals unit in parachute gear had already boarded C-130 cargo planes in Afghanistan when the mission was canceled, said a former senior intelligence official involved in the planning.
Mr. Rumsfeld decided that the operation, which had ballooned from a small number of military personnel and C.I.A. operatives to several hundred, was cumbersome and put too many American lives at risk, the current and former officials said. He was also concerned that it could cause a rift with Pakistan, an often reluctant ally that has barred the American military from operating in its tribal areas, the officials said.
The decision to halt the planned "snatch and grab" operation frustrated some top intelligence officials and members of the military"s secret Special Operations units, who say the United States missed a significant opportunity to try to capture senior members of Al Qaeda.
Their frustration has only grown over the past two years, they said, as Al Qaeda has improved its abilities to plan global attacks and build new training compounds in Pakistan"s tribal areas, which have become virtual havens for the terrorist network.
In recent months, the White House has become increasingly irritated with Pakistan"s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, for his inaction on the growing threat of the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
About a dozen current and former military and intelligence officials were interviewed for this article, all of whom requested anonymity because the planned 2005 mission remained classified.
Spokesmen for the Pentagon, the C.I.A. and the White House declined to comment. It is unclear whether President Bush was informed about the planned operation.
The officials acknowledge that they are not certain that Mr. Zawahri attended the 2005 meeting in North Waziristan, a mountainous province just miles from the Afghan border. But they said that the United States had communications intercepts that tipped them off to the meeting, and that intelligence officials had unusually high confidence that Mr. Zawahri was there.
Months later, in early May 2005, the C.I.A. launched a missile from a remotely piloted Predator drone, killing Haitham al-Yemeni, a senior Qaeda figure whom the C.I.A. had tracked since the meeting.
It has long been known that C.I.A. operatives conduct counterterrorism missions in Pakistan"s tribal areas. Details of the aborted 2005 operation provide a glimpse into the Bush administration"s internal negotiations over whether to take unilateral military action in Pakistan, where General Musharraf"s fragile government is under pressure from dissidents who object to any cooperation with the United States.
Pentagon officials familiar with covert operations said that planners had to consider the political and human risks of undertaking a military campaign in a sovereign country, even in an area like Pakistan"s tribal lands, where the government has only tenuous control. Even with its shortcomings, Pakistan has been a vital American ally since the Sept. 11 attacks, and the militaries of the two countries have close ties.
The Pentagon officials said tension was inherent in any decision to approve such a mission: a smaller military footprint allows a better chance of a mission going undetected, but it also exposes the units to greater risk of being killed or captured.
Officials said one reason Mr. Rumsfeld called off the 2005 operation was that the number of troops involved in the mission had grown to several hundred, including Army Rangers, members of the Navy Seals and C.I.A. operatives, and he determined that the United States could no longer carry out the mission without General Musharraf"s permission. It is unlikely that the Pakistani president would have approved an operation of that size, officials said.
Some outside experts said American counterterrorism operations had been hamstrung because of concerns about General Musharraf"s shaky government.
"The reluctance to take risk or jeopardize our political relationship with Musharraf may well account for the fact that five and half years after 9/11 we are still trying to run bin Laden and Zawahri to ground," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University.
Those political considerations have created resentment among some members of the military"s Special Operations forces.
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Old 07-11-2007, 05:53 PM   #6
 
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

It can't be done. We will never be able to wipe them out...Same as drug dealers.. They will allways be...We can't win this war...Impossible... Did you hear they said we need more terror attacks on our soil like another 911 just to keep the war going??? Now that is !@#$ed up..
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Old 07-11-2007, 06:07 PM   #7
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

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ORIGINAL: conner_condor

It can't be done. We will never be able to wipe them out...Same as drug dealers.. They will allways be...We can't win this war...Impossible... Did you hear they said we need more terror attacks on our soil like another 911 just to keep the war going??? Now that is !@#$ed up..

Their mission is one world under strict muslim control. Ayman al-Zawahrionce again in the last tape released called Iraq their top priority and their main front against us. Ifyou feel wecan't win then, they already have.

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Old 07-11-2007, 06:15 PM   #8
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

Charlie, I understand why we are a little hesitant about Pakistan. When we go or if we go, we have to be prepared for a major offensive. Even a little one will or could turn into a major take over of the country. I'm not sure we are ready for that yet.

Iran, isn't as bad but also presents problems. We bomb or do an embargo and Hamas goes nuts. Suicide bombers, there only real weapon, will be unleashed full force. Hence the question, full embargo or just crippling bombing? We could take over Iran with a lot less problems and backlash. They are the head of the snake right now.
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Old 07-11-2007, 06:22 PM   #9
 
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Default RE: Has the war helped or hurt their recruiting

Quote:
ORIGINAL: Fieldmouse

Quote:
ORIGINAL: conner_condor

It can't be done. We will never be able to wipe them out...Same as drug dealers.. They will allways be...We can't win this war...Impossible... Did you hear they said we need more terror attacks on our soil like another 911 just to keep the war going??? Now that is !@#$ed up..

Their mission is one world under strict muslim control. Ayman al-Zawahrionce again in the last tape released called Iraq their top priority and their main front against us. Ifyou feel wecan't win then, they already have.
Can we win the war on drugs?? Can we win a war on terror?? How are we going to win?? Tell me?? We going to pull a hitler and attempt a genocide of all the muslims?? How are we going to win with force?? We can't win it, we didn't win vietnam and we are not going to win this.. Dropping nukes won't even give us a win..


What about the war with canada that could happen soon??
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Old 07-11-2007, 06:23 PM   #10
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Iran the head of the snake? Look at where the leaders of AlQaida were Pakistan.
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