Thursday, May 03, 2007
In Missouri, Giuliani Beats Clinton & Obama, But Not Edwards
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Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani defeats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in head-to-head match-ups in the race for President in Missouri --but not John Edwards, according to a new package of polls out by
SurveyUSA.
There's a treasure trove of intriguing numbers inside the SurveyUSA poll, (to my knowledge) the first publicly released presidential poll in the Show-Me state.
Here are the head-to-heads:
Rudy Giuliani 48%
Hillary Clinton 45%
Rudy Giuliani 50%
Barack Obama 42%
Rudy Giuliani 43%
John Edwards 48%
So just looking at that, the question needs to be asked:
Would John Edwards be the strongest Democratic Presidential candidate in Missouri?
[ul][*]
Giuliani 48%, Clinton 45% . . . Going inside the numbers,
against Clinton, Giuliani holds a commanding 12-point lead with men. He beats Clinton by 7 points among independents. He pounds Clinton among conservatives. But note that Giuliani picks up 18% of self-described "liberals," not insignificant in such close contest. In the Ozarks, Giuliani beats Clinton 49%-43%. Hmm, didn't Claire get 43% in the Ozarks. Is that the magic number for Dems to win in Missouri?[*]
Giuliani 50%, Obama 42% . . .
This kind of surprised me a bit. I would've thought Obama would've played better than Hillary in Missouri. But Giuliani not only beats Obama handily among men, he fights to a draw among women. The youngsters go with Obama (18-34), but Rudy's edge among the rest of the voters is too much for Obama to handle. Even 31% of blacks go with Rudy. Giuliani's crossover appeal is key. He gets 28% of Democrats and a third of liberals. Giuliani even edges out Obama in St. Louis by 2 points. And in the Ozarks, it's a slam dunk. 60%-34%, Rudy.[*]
Giuliani 43%, Edwards 48% . . . This makes sense, talking to Democrats around here. They just love Johnny Edwards. True, Giuliani bests Edwards in the Ozarks. But only by 3 points. If a Dem can stay that competitive here, the state is theirs for the taking. Edwards wins over females against Giuliani and that makes a difference. Edwards is also able to beat Giuliani among the senior crowd (55 & over). Edwards ties Giuliani among white voters, and does better than Obama with blacks. Edwards easily wins independents and moderates,
and he wins a key constituency in gun owners. [/ul]
So would McCain fair better or worse against the top 3 Dems? What about the Missouri G.O.P's golden boy, Mitt Romney?
- I realize that the election is a long ways away and not everyone is well-informed about the candidates, but I thought everyone would want to weigh in on the "(Edwards) wins a key constituency in gun owners." I really think Edwards would be tough to beat in a general election, $400 haircuts aside.
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In Missouri, Giuliani Beats Clinton & Obama, But Not Edwards
