Monday's report on the economy, the Leading Indicator index, was touted as still further evidence of how "strong" our economy is.
The Leading Indicator report, considered a broad overview of the direction of our economy, was reported as increasing + 0.2%, slightly below the expected +0.3% predicted. A review of how today's total was calculated, however, reveals much cause for concern. Many important indexes declined. Many of the positives were only weakly positive. Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods declined 7% over the last month, for an annualized rate of decline of -84%. Building Permits declined 6.3% over the last month alone, and have and have declined 22% since April. Though Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods increased slightly (+0.4%), they are still 2% below August levels, and 4% below June's level. Even the big "gainers" are of dubious benefit. One big gainer was Stock Prices, which added +0.13% to the total index. Another gainer was the index of Consumer Expectations, which was +0.19. (Indicating media spin about the economy has been very successful.) The Average Workweek increased from 41.1 hours in August to 41.2 hours in October. This added +0.06 to the total. However, the Average Workweek was less than it was in August, July, and June, and the same as it was in May and April. Another very dubious positive.
The biggest gainer, however, was the increase in M2 money supply of 1.2% over the last month. This added a total of +0.43 points to the total +0.2 number. Had the money supply increase been 0, Leading Indicators would have shown a net change of -0.23%. Had the increase in money supply been the same as the previous month's +0.2%, the total Leading Indicator Index would have been -0.03%. Making the M2 number still more dubious is the fact that it is not an actual "recorded" statistic. It's an "imputed" statistic, meaning it is an estimate (quesstimate?) Meanwhile, the indicator considered most predictive of the health of the economy, the interest rate spread, was -0.52%.
Below is a copy of November 20th's Leading Indicator report from the Conference Board.
Though this month's reading is touted as being "positive," a closer review indicates how spurious and artificial this increase is. Many of us cannot understand how an increase in the M2 money supply can be considered a positive. Stripping out the money supply increase alone would make Leading Indicators negative for October. Furthermore, is it really a "positive" for the money supply to increase at a 14.4% annualized rate in one month? Are we now considering inflation a positive indicator?
Tomorrow's Durable Orders report should be very interesting. The current estimate is that it will decline a whopping 6%. I wouldn't be surprised if the decline is much larger. Though last month's Durable Orders recorded an increase of 8%, it would have been shown an increase of only 0.1% without transportation orders, most of which were accounted for by Boeing aircraft sales.
Read a lot of your stuff. Well done sites! Many wrong leftist ideas, but well made sites. I had hope until I kept reading about "tax cuts for the rich" & impeaching Pres. Bush over the NSA surveillance stuff. Being a physician, you're a heckuva lot richer than I, & I have received significant benefit from the tax cuts. The economy has receivedsignificant benefit from the tax cuts - as happens whenever they are cut. As far as the impeaching Pres. Bush - that's moonbat tinfoil hat stuff, you can do better than that. Perhaps a study of Adam Smith would be in order???
Being a physician, you're a heckuva lot richer than I, & I have received significant benefit from the tax cuts.
Boy, do have some wrong ideas about how much physicians make! I received less than$500 worth of tax benefits. You must be making a lot more than I am.Furthermore, Medicare reimbursemens were cut 4.5% this year,which reduces my income by the same amount.Furthermore, Bush's avid support of Corporatized medicineeliminates any bargaining powerdoctors have on negotiating fees. In fact, most doctors are doing worse under Bush. Many are doing muchworse.
Quote:
The economy has receivedsignificant benefit from the tax cuts - as happens whenever they are cut.
The economyhas receive almost 0 benefits from the tax cuts, as happens whenalmost allof the cuts are on the top 1%. You must be in that category, if they helped you.In fact,those tax cuts have increased the amount of investment capital far beyond the ability toproductively invest that money. The result isthatthis money has leakedinto non-productive, and even counter productive investments. It hasleaked out intoforeign countries, creating production facilities in foreign countries, that have put American workers out of work. The tax cuts have caused a massive increase in national debt, necessitating huge amounts of borrowing and resulting in significant inflation. The end result is that the tax cuts have hurt the economy and the country as a whole.
Quote:
As far as the impeaching Pres. Bush - that's moonbat tinfoil hat stuff, you can do better than that.
Ignoring theConstitution and breaking any statute he feels like breaking is not "moonbat" stuff.In fact, concern over this kind of "stuff" is whatour forefathers had in mind when they wrote the Consitution, so that people likeBushcouldn'tassume dictatorial powers, like he has already done.
Not quite in the top 1%, though I don't begrudge them for being there. Family gross income of about $60K is not close to the top 1%, even in Tennessee...
The NSA wiretap thing is not dictatorial. The terrorist detainee interrogation/tribunal bill is not dictatorial. Bush is at heart a moderate who would have "new toned" himself out in one term if the left had not pressed the attacks & kept him on his toes.
I do heartily agree that the bureaucratization of healthcare is not good. Likely doctors would make more & less money would be spent on healthcare if there were less layering of bureaucracy.
ORIGINAL: Whitehorse
The NSA wiretap thing is not dictatorial. The terrorist detainee interrogation/tribunal bill is not dictatorial. Bush is at heart a moderate who would have "new toned" himself out in one term if the left had not pressed the attacks & kept him on his toes.
Yes, it is dictatorial.When aPresident willingly and knowinglybreaks the law and the Constitution, andinsists upon his right to do so, and gets away with it,he definitely has assumed dictatorial powers. This has been discussed at length by Consititutional scholars, such as Johnathan Turley of George Washington University, and it is his opinion, along with the majorityof the legal profession that he has broken the law. Putting himself above the law isthe trademark of a dictator. Were it not for the support of Corporate America andhis rich friends, who benefit from his reverse RobinHood policies, he would have long since been impeached and thrown out of office. Especially considering he wasfraudulently elected not once, but twice, with clear violations of the law in both cases.
Quote:
I do heartily agree that the bureaucratization of healthcare is not good. Likely doctors would make more & less money would be spent on healthcare if there were less layering of bureaucracy.
Then it's hard to understand why you support Bush's policies, since he is the ultimate Corporatocrat and Bureaucrat, and has presided over the biggest expansion of government in American history.
Boy, do have some wrong ideas about how much physicians make! I received less thanÂ*$500 worth of tax benefits. You must be making a lot more than I am.Â*Furthermore, Medicare reimbursemens were cut 4.5% this year,Â*which reduces my income by the same amount.Â*Furthermore, Bush's avid support of Corporatized medicineÂ*eliminates any bargaining powerÂ*doctors have on negotiating fees. In fact, most doctors are doing worse under Bush. Many are doing muchÂ*worse.
Just out of curiosity, do you think doctors should be making more? I'm not in the medical industry so I have no clue, but I certainly see health care as a tremendous thorn in our society when it comes to helping push us further and further toward recession.
I read a great deal of your stuff on the provided links. While I may disagree with part of it, I do agree with a large part of it, mainly the endless and seemingly unrecoverable damage this supposed "free market society" has on our nation.
Another curiosity inquiry for you: What kind of car do you drive?
__________________
We were made by God and for God, and until you figure that out, life isn't going to make sense.
If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a civilization, it expects what never was and what never will be.
Boy, do have some wrong ideas about how much physicians make! I received less than$500 worth of tax benefits. You must be making a lot more than I am.Furthermore, Medicare reimbursemens were cut 4.5% this year,which reduces my income by the same amount.Furthermore, Bush's avid support of Corporatized medicineeliminates any bargaining powerdoctors have on negotiating fees. In fact, most doctors are doing worse under Bush. Many are doing muchworse.
Just out of curiosity, do you think doctors should be making more?
That's a tough one. I wish I was making more. But any answer as to what I think I should make would be severely biased.
However, I should make an important point here about medical costs. Of the health care dollar, somewhere between 9% to 19% goes to doctors. The rest goes elsewhere. Also, Medicare re-imbursement rates were reduced 4.5% this year. Since private insurers use Medicare rates to determine their own rates, this results in approximately a 4.5% decline in all insurers' re-imbursements. Now, do I think I deserve a 4.5% decreasein my pay? No, I do not.
However,increased insurance rates andcosts to patients have gone exclusivelytoward increased profits to health insurers. And a decline in physician reimbursements also goes to increased profits for health insurers.
Quote:
I'm not in the medical industry so I have no clue, but I certainly see health care as a tremendous thorn in our society when it comes to helping push us further and further toward recession.
I completely agree. But, again, those costs are not being cause by increased physician reimbursements. Those reimbursements have declined.
Quote:
I read a great deal of your stuff on the provided links. While I may disagree with part of it, I do agree with a large part of it, mainly the endless and seemingly unrecoverable damage this supposed "free market society" has on our nation.
I'd be curious to know as to what those areas are, both your agreements and disagreements.
Quote:
Another curiosity inquiry for you: What kind of car do you drive?
I have a '94 Chevy Camaro. My wife has an '87 Honda Accord, which is what I usually drive.
Dr.s, like anyone, should be allowed to make as much as they can. There should be no limits on what they can make legally & ethically.
I looked into & studied the NSA Terrorist surveillance program &, from what I could find, it's well thought out & set up to target terrorists & not the average US citizen. I am well aware that another administration could misuse this; however, another administration has great police & other powers to misuse. What is critical is choosing the right people so that they target the real "bad guys" & do not use their power against political opponents or anyone they shouldn't.
I, like many others who support Pres. Bush in the war on terror & tax cuts, have not supported the expansion of government under his administration. We have been clearly against the President on border security, illegal aliens, & the exhorbitant non-defense spending that has occurred. I am intellectually honest in supporting the policies with whichI agree & not supporting those with which I disagree. We can see from the last election, many conservatives & values voters did not vote, & independent voters were not impressed with the failings of the republican majority in congress. The difference is that I & others do not fall into the trap of hating & being against everything because of policy disagreements.
Your grandkids may be driving that Accord, they are awesome cars as long as they're maintained. With it nearing the 20 yr. mark, you've maintained it!
Economy: The Leading Indicators Farce
